Bhalla poll shows him tied with Menendez in NJ-8 Democratic primary

Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla is brandishing an internal poll that puts him in a statistical dead heat against Rep. Robert J. Menendez in the Democratic primary for Congress in New Jersey’s 8th district.

Menendez leads Bhalla, 44%-41%, with 15% undecided, in a poll conducted by GQR, one of the nation’s leading Democratic pollsters.

The numbers are substantially different from an internal poll for the Menendez campaign conducted late last month; the poll showed the freshman congressman ahead by 22 points, 46%-24%, with 6% of a third candidate, Kyle Jasey.

“Menendez’s share of the vote is likely his ceiling, with his own poll showing the incumbent only receiving 46 percent of the vote among registered Democrats in the district,” Anna Greenberg said in a polling memorandum obtained by the New Jersey Globe.

Greenberg pointed to different methodologies in the two surveys: Menendez sampled registered Democrats, while her poll looked at likely voters with a history of voting in Democratic primaries.

“Registered voters are less informed and less engaged than primary voters; not only would they be less familiar with Bhalla, they would also be less conversant with charges against Bob Menendez,” Greenberg said. “Our poll shows that the most reliable Democratic primary voters are the most hostile to Rob Menendez”

But Menendez’s pollster, Ben Lazarus of TargetSmart, defended his poll

“Our Menendez for Congress poll was conducted among registered Democrats in the Eighth Congressional District who were then screened for their likelihood to vote in the primary and weighted to be representative of a likely Democratic primary electorate. It is completely inaccurate to deride our poll as not being representative of likely primary voters. In fact, our research and modeling suggests that the more likely a voter is to participate in the primary, the more likely they are to support Congressman Menendez,” said Lazarus. “Furthermore, given the Eighth is a heavily Hispanic district, our campaign went out of its way to invest in a culturally appropriate, bilingual, language of choice polling methodology, a design that ensured primary voters who predominantly speak Spanish were able to participate in the survey.”

The poll puts Menendez’s name recognition at 87%, with underwater favorables of 35%-41%.

“While voters may confuse Bob and Rob Menendez, the Menendez name remains a significant liability,” Greenberg stated.

Senator Menendez has upside-down favorables of 27%-60% in the district he represented as a congressman from 1993 until his appointment to the Senate in 2006. Nearly three-quarters of Democrats (73%) believe he is “guilty of bribery and serving the interests of foreign governments, and almost two-thirds (64%) say it’s “time for new leadership in Congress.

Bhalla’s name recognition among likely Democratic primary voters is 43%, with favorables of 25%-8%.

“There is very little room for Menendez to grow his share of the vote, while Bhalla has tremendous upside,” Greenberg said. “Bhalla has room to grow.”
According to Greenberg, Bhalla takes a 59%-33% lead on an informed positive ballot.

The poll was conducted from February 1-7 with a sample size of 403 likely Democratic primary voters and a margin of error of +/- 4.9%.

This story was updated at 12:05 PM with comment from Lazarus.

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