Sabato’s Crystal Ball moves NJ-3 to ‘likely Democratic’

A top race-rater gave Rep. Andy Kim’s (D-Marlton) re-election chances an upgrade Thursday.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved its rating for New Jersey’s third congressional district from leans Democratic to likely Democratic, citing improvement in former Vice President Joe Biden’s chances of winning the district.

The first-term Democrat faces a challenge from Former Hill International CEO David Richter.

Richter pledged to put $1 million of his own money behind his congressional bid. As of the end of June, the former Hill International CEO had loaned his campaign $600,000, though most of that money was spent in a bruising primary against former Burlington County Freeholder Director Kate Gibbs.

It’s not clear how well Richter has raised funds since winning the party nod in July — the next Federal Election Commission Reporting Period ends Wednesday, meaning those figures won’t be available until mid-October — he went into the third quarter of 2020 with just $123,173 banked.

By contrast, Kim had just over $3.5 million banked at the end of June and raised another million dollars in the first 62 days of the third quarter.

The new rating is slightly better for the Democrat than those of other race raters.

The Cook Political Report says the race leans Democratic.