Republicans expand Election Day turnout lead in NJ-7, cut Democratic advantage to under 18,000 votes

Republicans continue to chip away at the Democratic turnout advantage in New Jersey’s 7th congressional district, with a late-afternoon surge in Election Day voting giving Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield) a chance to overcome Democrat Rebecca Bennett’s substantial early-voting lead.

An updated analysis by Umichvoter shows that 48,707 Republicans have voted on Election Day, compared with 36,503 Democrats and 28,932 unaffiliated voters.

That gives Republicans a 12,204-vote Election Day advantage, up from 9,109 votes earlier in the afternoon and 3,048 votes Tuesday morning.

Republicans account for 43% of Election Day turnout, compared with 32% for Democrats and 25% for unaffiliated voters.

But Democrats remain ahead overall, although their advantage continues to shrink.

Of the 261,558 voters who have cast ballots, 109,081 are registered Democrats, 91,101 are Republicans, and 61,376 are unaffiliated.

That leaves Democrats with a 17,980-vote advantage, down from 21,075 earlier in the afternoon and 27,136 Tuesday morning.

Republicans are running particularly strong in Hunterdon County, where they account for 52% of Election Day voters, compared with 27% for Democrats. In Warren County, Republicans lead 53% to 28%.

In Morris County, a crucial battleground in Kean’s bid for a third term, Republicans account for 47% of Election Day turnout, compared with 28% for Democrats.  In Somerset County, Republicans lead 42% to 29%.

Union County remains the exception, with Democrats outvoting Republicans 43% to 29%.

The figures remain incomplete.  Five of the district’s six counties have reported Election Day turnout, but Sussex County, a Republican stronghold, has not yet reported meaningful numbers.

The remaining pool of potential voters includes 127,125 Republicans, 93,450 Democrats, and 158,893 unaffiliated voters.

That leaves Republicans with 33,675 more registered voters who have not yet cast ballots than Democrats, giving Kean a potential path to erase Bennett’s remaining advantage.

The district has recorded 19,313 additional Election Day voters since the previous update, including 7,878 Republicans, 6,083 Democrats, and 5,352 unaffiliated voters.

The figures reflect party registration, not votes for individual candidates.  With more than 61,000 unaffiliated voters already participating, their candidate preferences could prove decisive in one of New Jersey’s most closely watched congressional contests.