Ravi Bhalla has a five-point lead over incumbent Robert J. Menendez (D-Jersey City), according to a Global Strategy Group poll commissioned by a super PAC, America’s Promise.
The poll shows Bhalla, the two-term mayor of Hoboken, leading Menendez 33%-28%. Nearly one-third of Democratic primary voters (32%) are still undecided. Bhalla’s lead is just outside the margin of error.
A third candidate, Kyle Jasey, is at 7%.
Menendez has high name identification, with favorables of 38%-34%, while Bhalla is at 38%-8%.
“Bhalla has room to grow, while Menendez is close to his ceiling. The majority of voters have yet to learn about Bhalla,” the pollster said in a memo. “Bhalla’s vote share is likely to grow as his campaign has a chance to introduce him to voters, while Menendez faces an electorate that already has a sense of who he is.”
Bhalla’s net favorability is at 30%, while Menendez is at 4%.
The freshman congressman’s father, U.S. Senator Bob Menendez, is wildly unpopular in New Jersey’s 8th district; his favorables are deeply under water at 22%- 69%. Senator Menendez represented the district in the House from 1993 until joining the U.S. Senate in 2006.
“Senator Bob Menendez is more likely to be a hinderance than a help to his son, Rob Menendez,” the polling memo said.
Some bad news for Menendez: in a Hispanic-majority district, Bhalla had a four-point lead in the Democratic primary, a number within the margin of error. Almost seven in ten Hispanic voters (68%) view Senator Menendez unfavorably.
Among Hispanics, Bhalla has a 31%-27% lead over Menendez, with Jasey at 10%.
Those numbers appear to be validated by poll results for the U.S. Senate race in the 8th district, where Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) has a 30-point lead, 41%-11%, over a Latina candidate, Patricia Campos-Medina, among Hispanic voters. Another candidate, former Newark school board member Lawrence Hamm, is at 1%.
The New Jersey Globe reviewed the complete survey, including all questions and full data.
The poll was conducted between April 1-4 with a sample size of 400 likely Democratic primary voters and a margin of error of +/- 4.9%.
Earlier today, NBC News reported that U.S. District Court Judge Sidney Stein has severed the federal corruption trials of Senator Menendez and his wife, Nadine. The senator’s trial will still begin on May 6, about a month before the primary election; Nadine Menendez, dealing with serious health issues, will have her trial delayed until July.