The campaign arm of the House Republicans will seek to expand a slender majority this year, but an open seat in New Jersey’s 3rd district isn’t one of the 22 seats across the country they are targeting at this point.
A POLITICO report this morning says that the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) has reserved $46 million worth of TV and digital ads; the race for the seat that Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) is giving up to run for U.S. Senate is not on their list.
The 3rd district is not on the list of races the Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF) is looking at either; the independent expenditure group controlled by House Speaker Mike Johnson reserved roughly $141 million in TV ads for the fall.
This is all bad news for Rajesh Mohan, the Holmdel cardiologist who faces Assembly Health Committee Chairman Herb Conaway, Jr. (D-Delran) in the race to succeed Kim.
There are several clear reasons why the Washington Republican groups are taking a pass on NJ-3: it’s an enormously expensive media market that would require investments in New York and Philadelphia television markets to reach all voters; after redistricting, the boundaries of the new 3rd district became Joe Biden +14 (Kim had won twice in the old district, which also went for Donald Trump twice); and Mohan, a narrow GOP primary winner, had raised a meager $123,961 through May 22, with $34,782 cash on hand. Under the current map, Kim won by 12 points against a self-funding Republican.
But while it’s not looking good for Mohan, it’s not over for him either. The NRCC and CLF have reserved New York and Philadelphia airtime, and they could shift some of that to Mohan if they want.
Conaway raised $504,508 for his primary bid and showed $130,478 banked as of May 15. Mohan has not met any of the benchmarks the NRCC sets for candidates to earn national party financial support.