New Jersey voters have already cast 437,527 vote-by-mail ballots in advance of the November 5 general election, with Democrats outpacing Republicans by a 62.7% to 20.5% margin, according to an analysis by Ryan Dubicki, an Associated Press election researcher.
That puts statewide voter turnout at 6.6% so far. Since New Jersey still has roughly 600,000 inactive voters on the rolls, the real turnout number is actually about 7.2%.
Of the 1,048,728 mail-in ballots sent by county clerks, 55% went to Democrats and 19% to Republicans. Democrats have returned 48% of their ballots, and the Republican return rate is 44.6%. About 16% of all voters have requested a VBM ballot.
In New Jersey’s 7th district, where freshman Rep. Tom Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield) and Democrat Sue Altman are locked in a close race, 44,238 vote-by-mail ballots have already been returned: 24,969 (56%) from Democrats and 11,475 (26%) from Republicans. Democrats have returned 46.2% of their VBMs, and Republicans have sent back 44%. NJ-7 ranks second in the state behind NJ-1, where Rep. Donald Norcross (D-Camden) is seeking re-election
County clerks have mailed 108,492 ballots in NJ-7, 49.8% to Democrats and 24.2% to Republicans.
According to an analysis by TargetSmart, women have cast 55.6% of the VBMs already returned in NJ-7. Three-quarters of the returned ballots are from voters over age 50; less than 9% came from voters between the ages of 18 and 29. 86% of mail-in ballots come from white voters.
The district has 19,052 more Republicans than Democrats, a 34%-31% edge; 35% of the registered voters in the 7th are unaffiliated with either party. A tiny fraction of NJ-7 voters are registered with one of the two minor parties that also have independent candidates in the race: out of 634,344 voters, 2,761 are members of the Libertarian Party and 984 are registered with the Green Party.