Menendez’s revenge: run for re-election as an independent

As Democratic U.S. Senators continue to call for Bob Menendez’s resignation, they might want to bone up on their Connecticut political history.

Thomas J. Dodd was in his second term in the Senate when he was censured for diverting campaign funds to pay for personal expenses.   Just two of Dodd’s 63 Democratic colleagues stood by him, and Connecticut Democrats refused to back him for re-election in 1970.

Instead, Dodd ran as an independent — his campaign manager was his 26-year-old son, Chris — and received 266,497 votes.  His candidacy allowed Republicans to flip the Senate seat, with Rep. Lowell Weicker defeating Joseph Duffey, an anti-Vietnam War activist, by 86,000 votes, 41.7% to 33.8%.

This should be the Democrats’ biggest fear about Menendez: he says, “Democrats want me to resign?  Fine.  They don’t want me?  No problem.  Now I’m an independent, and I will run for re-election as an independent.  Republicans can take their usual 43% in New Jersey; I’ll win at least 15% — Hispanic voters will stand by me — and you will lose the Senate seat.  Then watch what happens when I spend my $8 million on Philly TV, and you lose the White House because I cost you Pennsylvania.  Or maybe we can make a deal?”

It’s hard to imagine Menendez walking away from the Democratic Party, even as they’re throwing him overboard.  Unlike Dodd, whose son would eventually win House and Senate races and partly restore his reputation, Menendez already has a son in Congress.  Still, he’s watched the state’s Democratic establishment that he was a member of – a Governor, a U.S. Senator, seven House members, legislative leaders, and 12 of 21 county chairs — publicly ask him to step down.

But it’s also impossible to imagine Menendez would hesitate to use whatever leverage he has.  An independent run – which the senator has not even hinted at – extends his relevance five months beyond the June 2024 Democratic primary.  The stakeholders list expands significantly if Menendez threatens to pull votes away from the Democratic column.

In New Jersey, anything is possible.