Menendez’s legal troubles could have political ramifications for his son

The unsealing of a major federal indictment this morning against U.S. Senator Bob Menendez will undoubtedly have massive political consequences to the senior senator from New Jersey. It could also present some danger for another sitting member of Congress: Rep. Rob Menendez (D-Jersey City), the senator’s son.

To be clear, Congressman Menendez is in no way implicated by the federal charges, which allege that Senator Menendez and his wife Nadine (Congressman Menendez’s stepmother, not his mother) accepted hundreds of thousands of dollars in bribes from three businessmen. There are no whispers of any legal trouble for the younger Menendez.

Political trouble, however, is a different question entirely. Menendez’s ascension to the 8th congressional district last year was facilitated in no small part by his father, who had held the same seat 16 years earlier; with the elder Menendez facing such intense legal difficulties, it’s at least conceivable that state Democrats might want to cut his son loose as well.

“You couldn’t rule it out,” said Micah Rasmussen, the director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University, said of the younger Menendez. “He doesn’t have a power base of his own. He’s borrowing one… You have to have your own base of power. If you don’t, the minute somebody comes along who does have one, and they want what you’ve got, then they can take it.”

The younger Menendez had not previously held elected office before he ran for Congress in 2022, instead serving for a year as a member of the Port Authority Board of Commissioners, an appointed role. Nevertheless, aided heavily by the Democratic organization in Hudson County, he breezed past two minor challengers in the Democratic primary and easily won the safely blue seat in November.

In other words, Menendez’s political history, and future, is heavily tied up in the Hudson Democratic organization. With still-shallow political roots and only a modest campaign warchest – after a huge initial quarter last year, Menendez’s fundraising has since slowed down significantly – if Hudson Democrats (and Democrats in the district’s two other counties, Essex and Union) choose to dump him, there may not be too much he can do.

But that’s not necessarily the most likely outcome. The Menendez family name still goes a long way in Hudson County, and local Democratic leaders will be extremely hesitant to turn on them regardless of the circumstances.

There’s also the possibility that protecting Congressman Menendez could be a part of a larger deal that gets Senator Menendez to resign or retire, though that might only provide temporary respite.

“You can see a situation in which part of the senator’s price is, ‘My son is safe,’” Rasmussen said. “But that really only means for now. That really only means until [party leaders] say otherwise.”

Another consideration that Hudson Democrats would have to confront is, if not Menendez, then who? Despite being plurality Hispanic, Hudson County has a relative dearth of high-ranking Hispanic elected officials, and there’s no one obviously next in line to take the 8th district if Congressman Menendez is pushed out.

Of course, even if Menendez retains official party support, he could face a serious challenge anyways from more anti-establishment Democratic forces. Considering the terrible headlines surrounding Senator Menendez, a campaign by progressive Jersey City Councilman James Solomon, or an as-yet unknown candidate in the mold of New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, could pick up steam.

The math of such a campaign would be difficult for any challenger, however. They might be able to develop a base in downtown Jersey City and Hoboken, where Congressman Menendez did worst in his 2022 primary, but those areas are numerically outweighed by huge Hispanic voting blocs in places like Union City and Newark that could be mobilized for Menendez.

One further factor in any potential 8th district contest is Jersey City Mayor and gubernatorial candidate Steve Fulop, who got his start in politics running a hopeless campaign in 2004 against now-Senator Menendez for an earlier version of the same district. Fulop has a complex relationship with the Hudson Democratic organization and never been close with the Menendezes; his position on the race could be important both to Congressman Menendez and to his own gubernatorial campaign.

That’s getting multiple steps ahead of where things are currently, though. So far, Congressman Menendez is resolutely defending Senator Menendez – making him just about the only New Jersey Democrat so far to weigh in one way or the other on the charges.

“I have unwavering confidence in my father and his dedication to the New Jerseyans he has relentlessly fought for in his long career as a public servant,” the younger Menendez said in a statement. “I strongly believe in his integrity and his values, and look forward to seeing him move past this distraction to continue fighting for our state in the United States Senate.”

(Notably, the statement came via Mercury Public Affairs, a firm with close ties to Senator Menendez, rather than from Congressman Menendez’s own office. It also echoes, nearly word-for-word, a previous statement the congressman released in October 2022, shortly after the existence of the investigation first came to light.)

Time will tell whether sticking by his father will cost Menendez politically at home in New Jersey. Its impact outside of New Jersey, though, may already be set in stone regardless of what the congressman does.

After all, the two Menendezes share a home state, a political base, and even a name. Congressman Menendez may not be the one who allegedly traded secrets and influence for gold bars and a Mercedes-Benz – but it will be difficult for him to escape that legacy.