Malinowski’s internal polling gives him early edge in packed NJ-11 primary

DISCLAIMER: Polls can be a helpful tool for understanding elections, but they are an imperfect one, as demonstrated by New Jersey’s three most recent statewide general elections, all of which had results substantially different from what nearly every pollster had projected. Poll results should be treated as data points and guideposts in complex elections, not as ironclad predictions of what will happen; the same is doubly true for internal polls, which are conducted with a specific agenda and candidate in mind. (This disclaimer will appear on all future New Jersey Globe polling stories.)

In the 13-candidate Democratic primary for Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill’s House seat, former Rep. Tom Malinowski likely starts out with the highest profile of anyone, and he’s got new internal polling to back that up.

According to an internal poll commissioned by Malinowski’s campaign and conducted by the polling firm GQR, 63% of likely Democratic voters in the 11th congressional district have already heard of Malinowski, who represented a neighboring congressional district for four years; the poll, which was in the field in late November, comes before Malinowski or anyone else has spent significant amounts of money swaying voters.

The poll also tested five of Malinowski’s opponents: Essex County Commissioner Brendan Gill (D-Montclair) has 40% name ID, Passaic County Commissioner John Bartlett (D-Wayne) has 23%, Bernie Sanders 2020 national political director Analilia Mejia and Morris Township Committeeman/former Mayor Jeff Grayzel have 20% each, and former Army paratrooper Zach Beecher has 16%. All six Democrats have very low unfavorable ratings in a race that hasn’t seen much negative campaigning yet.

Name ID and favorability ratings for the other seven Democrats in the race were not tested; that includes Lieutenant Gov. Tahesha Way, who, as the only statewide official in the race, may be one of the best-known candidates running.

Malinowski’s recognition advantage translates into a clear early lead in a head-to-head contest. According to the poll, the former congressman earns 28% of the Democratic primary vote to Gill’s 12%; Mejia and Way each get 5%, Bartlett and Grayzel each get 2%, and Beecher gets 1%. 31% of respondents said they were undecided.

The field’s six other Democratic primary candidates – Maplewood Committeeman/former Mayor Dean Dafis, Obama administration alum Cammie Croft, Chatham Councilman Justin Strickland, former congressional staffer Marc Chaaban, comedian and attorney J-L Cauvin, and activist Anna Lee Williams – were not named at any point in the poll. 14% of respondents opted for an unnamed “other” in the head-to-head test.

The New Jersey Globe did not review the entire poll, but Malinowski said that the ballot test and name ID questions were asked at the beginning of the questionnaire, before later questions testing messaging and biographies of the candidates that might have tilted the results.

The poll comes with the caveat that Malinowski’s campaign released it with a specific agenda – making the argument that the former congressman is well-positioned to win the February 5 primary – and that its numbers, like those of any internal poll conducted on behalf of a candidate, may be overly rosy for his campaign. Still, it provides a helpful early signal of where the race stands, and it may end up being one of the only publicly released polls of the race.

Malinowski represented the 7th district from 2019 to 2023, losing re-election in 2022 after the district was redrawn to be redder. He lived in Hunterdon County for years, far from the boundaries of the 11th district, but two of the towns he once represented are now in the 11th district, and he said he’ll soon move into South Orange and become an 11th district voter.

Malinowski’s four-year tenure in Congress raised his profile across the state, especially in the New York City media market, which saw millions of dollars in spending from Malinowski and his allies. If today’s poll is any indication, many 11th district voters still remember Malinowski well, and aren’t inclined to hold his district-switching against him; the poll gives him a 36% favorable rating and a 7% unfavorable rating among Democratic voters.

“I think it’s certainly an advantage that I have been a member of Congress in the public eye, representing parts of Essex and Morris County,” Malinowski said. “Voters have seen me fight for the things that they care about, they’ve seen me take on Trump and win. I don’t think it’s just name recognition, it’s recognition of past service that is relevant to this moment.”

The GQR poll was conducted on behalf of Tom Malinowski’s campaign from November 19-23 with a sample size of 400 likely special Democratic primary voters in New Jersey’s 11th congressional district and a margin of error of +/- 5.4%.