Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wyckoff) has defeated Republican Mary Jo Guinchard to win re-election in the 5th congressional district, the New Jersey Globe projects, putting the congressman in position to launch his long-awaited 2025 gubernatorial campaign in the coming weeks.
As of 1:26 a.m., Gottheimer leads Guinchard, a retired professional singer who was once the mayor of a small village in New York, 54% to 44%.
A former speechwriter for President Bill Clinton, Gottheimer’s first run for political office came in 2016, when he unseated Rep. Scott Garrett (R-Wantage) in a historically Republican district spanning from Bergen County towns on the Hudson River to the Pennsylvania border. Garrett held deeply socially conservative views at odds with his constituents, and Gottheimer convinced enough Republican voters to split their tickets and elect him to Congress even as Donald Trump was carrying the district.
In the eight years since then, Gottheimer has become one of the House Democratic caucus’s most prominent and avowed moderates, including serving as co-chairman of the bipartisan House Problem Solvers Caucus since 2017. During his most recent term, Gottheimer has taken up battles over New York City’s congestion pricing plan, the State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction cap, and Israel’s war in Gaza.
Back home in New Jersey, Gottheimer has built up an increasingly strong statewide apparatus, making alliances with powerful figures like Hudson County Democratic Chair Craig Guy and State Sen./Union City Mayor Brian Stack. Those alliances are likely in preparation for a gubernatorial campaign in 2025, when Gov. Phil Murphy is term-limited.
But much like neighboring Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) – who is also likely to announce a campaign for governor now that her re-election campaign is over – Gottheimer had to win re-election first. Fortunately for him, while the 5th district was once highly competitive, it was redrawn prior to the 2022 cycle to be far more Democratic, and Guinchard never raised the kind of money or got the kind of attention for her campaign to stand much of a chance of unseating Gottheimer.
Gottheimer, the Human Fundraising Machine, has a campaign warchest of more than $20 million, but he chose to use very little of it on his campaign this year. Guinchard is now on her third unsuccessful campaign in as many cycles, after running for county commissioner in Bergen County in both 2022 and 2023.