Turnout in the 2023 primary? The math isn’t easy

Calculating voter turnout in the 2023 primary election is not a simple mathematic equation.

The easy way to look at the numbers is to just divide the total number of votes cast on Tuesday – roughly 543,429  (that will change after late VBMs and cure letters lead to a final certification) by the number of registered voters in New Jersey as of Tuesday morning: 6,550,101.

That brings the turnout to 8.3%

But the statewide voter registration number isn’t real.  As of Tuesday, New Jersey had 572,693 inactive voters who remain on the rolls even though election officials have identified them as unlikely to still be around.

On top of that, there are 80,714 New Jerseyan who are ineligible to vote in primary elections because they have chosen to join one of seven minor political parties, including Green and Libertarian.  That group ought to come off the total since they’re not primary voters.    Now the real number of eligible primary votes is 5,940,746, about 9.3% less.

Under that math, turnout increases from 8.3% to 9.1%.

The real numbers to look at will be the turnout by political party.

Registration numbers will change to reflect the number of previously unaffiliated voters who voted in the primary; in other words, the number of unaffiliated voters (2,392,643) will go down, and the number of voters who joined one of the two major political parties (Democrats: 2,536,474; Republicans: 1,540,270) will go up.

Right now, about 64% of the primary votes came from Democrats and 36% from Republicans.  With unaffiliated voters removed from the calculation, turnout is roughly 14% for Democrats and 12% for Republicans among New Jerseyans who vote in major party primaries.