Trump approval at 29% in New Jersey ahead of midterm elections, FDU poll finds

President Donald Trump’s approval rating in New Jersey stands at 29%, with 66% of voters disapproving of his job performance, according to a new Fairleigh Dickinson University poll released Wednesday, six days before the midterm elections.

The survey gives Trump a negative 37-point approval rating, with 74% of Republicans, 24% of independents, and 6% of Democrats approving of his performance.

More than one in four self-described conservatives (27%) disapprove of Trump’s job performance, compared with 68% who approve. Among moderates, his numbers are overwhelmingly negative, with just 21% approving and 73% disapproving.  Trump is underwater among independents, with just 24% approving of his job performance and 67% disapproving. Even among Republicans, 20% disapprove of the president’s performance, while 74% approve.

It is the third major New Jersey poll this month to show Trump with approval or favorability ratings below one-third.

“Trump isn’t running for re-election, but he has made himself the face of the Republican Party,” said Dan Cassino, the executive director of the FDU Poll. “The fact that he’s this unpopular means that he’s dragging down Republican candidates in a way that a less visible President might not be.”

He is also underwater across every major demographic group: men (32%-64%), women (26%-67%), white voters (32%-63%), and Hispanic voters (36%-60%). Among Black voters, his approval stands at just 7%, with 83% disapproving.

Among voters who identify with the MAGA movement, Trump’s approval is 95%.

A Stockton University poll released last Thursday put Trump’s job approval at 31%, with 64% disapproving.  A Rutgers-Eagleton poll released October 1 found Trump with a 24%-66% favorable-to-unfavorable rating, including 13%-72% among independents.

The Rutgers-Eagleton survey measured personal favorability among adults, while Stockton measured job approval among registered voters and FDU weighted its results to reflect likely voters.  The Stockton poll also found that 55% of New Jersey voters want Democrats to control Congress, compared with 31% who prefer Republicans.

Eight years ago, heading into the 2018 midterm elections, Trump had a 39%-59% job approval rating among likely New Jersey voters in an October 3 FDU poll.  His approval rating is now ten points lower, while his disapproval is seven points higher.  Among independents, Trump was at 33%-55% in 2018, compared with 24%-67% today; his approvals among Republicans was at 90%.

In the 2018 midterms, Democrats flipped four Republican-held congressional seats in New Jersey, defeating incumbents Leonard Lance and Tom MacArthur and winning open seats previously held by Rodney Frelinghuysen and Frank LoBiondo.

Trump’s numbers mirror an October 1973 Rutgers-Eagleton poll conducted just before the Saturday Night Massacre, which put Richard Nixon at 27%-70% in New Jersey.  That year, Democrat Brendan Byrne won the governor’s race by a 2-1 margin, and Republicans were decimated in races for the state legislature.

Gubernatorial approvals

The FDU poll also measured Gov. Mikie Sherrill’s job approval rating at 48%, with 32% disapproving and 20% undecided or expressing no opinion.

In March, Sherrill’s approval rating was 58%-34%, with 8% undecided.

Among Democrats, Sherrill has a 71%-12% approval rating, compared with 88%-7% in March. The share of Democrats with no opinion rose from 5% to 17%.

Republicans give Sherrill a 22%-65% approval rating, while independents are at 34%-40%.

“Normally, you’d expect attitudes towards the governor to become more, rather than less, certain over time,” Cassino said. “But for whatever reason, Democrats are not as happy with the Governor as they were when she took over.”

Sherrill’s approval among women stands at 46%, compared with 62% in March. Among men, her approval is 50%, compared with 53% seven months ago.

The governor has a 54%-14% approval rating among Black voters, 47%-28% among Hispanic voters, and 47%-36% among white voters.

The latest Rutgers-Eagleton poll put Sherrill’s job approval at 44%-34%, compared with 45%-29% in April.  Among Democrats, her Rutgers-Eagleton approval rating was 69%-10%.

Cassino said changes in the Democratic electorate’s composition could explain some of the increase in voters expressing uncertainty about Sherrill’s performance.

The FDU Poll was conducted between October 16-22 with a sample size of 800 registered New Jersey voters, with results weighted to reflect likely voters, and a margin of error of 5.1%.