Donald Trump’s decade-long dominance of the Republican Party has transformed New Jersey’s voter rolls, producing enormous GOP gains at the Jersey Shore and in South Jersey while Democrats strengthened their position in the state’s large counties and affluent suburbs.
Since Trump became the Republican presidential nominee in 2016, Republican registration in New Jersey has increased by 507,598 voters, a 43% jump.
Democrats added even more voters — 574,880 — although their 29% growth rate was considerably smaller.
The result is a state with substantially more Republicans than it had ten years ago, but also one where the Democratic registration advantage has grown.
In August 2016, New Jersey had 1,994,338 Democrats and 1,179,441 Republicans, giving Democrats an 814,897-voter advantage.
Today, there are 2,569,218 Democrats and 1,687,039 Republicans. The Democratic edge now stands at 882,179, up 67,282 over ten years.
That doesn’t tell the full story.
Democratic registration exploded during Trump’s first term. In July 2020, Democrats reached two landmarks: they had more than one million more registered voters than Republicans for the first time, and they surpassed unaffiliated voters to become New Jersey’s largest registration group.
The one-million-voter advantage lasted nearly three years.
It disappeared in the state’s April 1, 2023, registration report, when Democrats had 2,533,035 voters and Republicans had 1,534,241. The Democratic advantage had fallen to 998,794.
The other milestone has not gone away. Democrats still outnumber unaffiliated voters by 192,986.
Overall voter registration increased from 5,603,357 in August 2016 to 6,706,438 in August 2026, a gain of more than 1.1 million voters.
The period covers the final 18 months of Gov. Chris Christie’s administration, all eight years of Gov. Phil Murphy’s tenure, and the first seven months of Gov. Mikie Sherrill’s administration.
But the unaffiliated portion of the electorate actually declined over the decade.
New Jersey had 2,418,684 unaffiliated voters in 2016, representing 43% of the electorate. That number has fallen by 42,452, to 2,376,232, even as the state added more than one million voters.
Unaffiliated voters now make up about 35% of the electorate. Democrats account for 38%, up from 36% ten years ago, while the Republican share has grown from 21% to 25%.
The decline in unaffiliated registration occurred in 15 of New Jersey’s 21 counties, suggesting that much of the growth in both parties came from voters choosing sides in an increasingly polarized political environment.
The biggest Republican transformation came in Ocean County, where GOP registration increased by 80,722, from 122,890 to 203,612. Republican gains outpaced Democratic growth there by 59,535 voters.
Ocean had more unaffiliated voters than Republicans in 2016. Republicans are now the county’s largest registration bloc by more than 32,000.
Monmouth County provided the second-largest Republican gain. The GOP added 59,352 voters there, compared with 28,062 new Democrats. Unaffiliated registration declined by 17,327.
Republicans now have 171,047 registered voters in Monmouth, just 18,605 behind the county’s unaffiliated total and more than 27,000 ahead of Democrats.
GOP registration also grew substantially in Gloucester County, where Republicans added 26,346 voters while Democrats gained 9,945. Republicans added 9,567 voters in Cumberland, compared with a Democratic increase of 4,762, and gained 6,586 in Salem, where Democratic registration rose by just 985.
Those numbers reflect South Jersey’s movement toward Republicans during the Trump era, even as Democrats retained control of Camden County, strengthened their position in Burlington, and muted a GOP surge in Gloucester, where some Republicans have won countywide office, but others were unable to flip party control.
In Atlantic County, Republican registration increased by 20,076, slightly more than the 18,650-voter Democratic gain. Republicans now trail Democrats there by just 8,228, down from nearly 10,000 in 2016.
The Democratic growth story is centered in North Jersey and the suburbs.
Hudson County added 60,165 Democrats, the largest Democratic increase of any county. Bergen was close behind with 60,031 new Democrats, followed by Middlesex with 49,583, Essex with 48,471 and Union with 43,325.
Democrats also made substantial gains in places that were once central to the Republican Party’s statewide coalition.
Morris County added 39,660 Democrats and 16,614 Republicans. A Republican registration advantage of 39,166 in 2016 has been cut to 16,120.
In Somerset, Democrats added 29,274 voters, nearly three times the Republican increase of 10,058. Democrats now trail unaffiliated voters by just 3,342 and lead Republicans by nearly 29,000.
Democratic gains also outpaced Republicans in Hunterdon County, although Republicans remain the county’s largest registration group.
The leading registration bloc changed in eight counties.
Democrats surpassed unaffiliated voters in Burlington, Gloucester, Mercer, Middlesex and Passaic. Republicans overtook unaffiliated voters in Morris, Ocean and Warren.
Despite Republican registration growth, Democrats won every presidential and gubernatorial election held in New Jersey during the ten years.
Hillary Clinton carried the state by 14 points in 2016, and Joe Biden defeated Trump by nearly 16 points in 2020. The state became considerably more competitive in 2024, when Kamala Harris won New Jersey by about six points against Trump.
The gubernatorial results followed a similar trajectory.
Murphy defeated Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno by 14 points in 2017 but came within three points of losing to Jack Ciattarelli four years later. Sherrill restored a comfortable Democratic margin in 2025, easily defeating Ciattarelli in his third bid for governor.
Democrats also finished the period with larger legislative majorities, although they took a considerable detour along the way.
When Trump became the Republican nominee, Democrats controlled the State Senate, 24-16, and the State Assembly, 52-28.
They increased those majorities in 2017, reaching 25-15 in the Senate and 54-26 in the Assembly.
Republicans recovered two Assembly seats and a Senate seat in South Jersey in 2019. Their biggest breakthrough came in 2021, when Ciattarelli’s strong performance helped the GOP increase its Senate delegation to 16 and win six Assembly seats. Democrats emerged with 24-16 and 46-34 majorities.
That was the final election under the legislative map adopted in 2011.
Under the new map, Democrats regained six Assembly seats in 2023 and entered the next legislative session with a 25-15 Senate majority and a 52-28 Assembly advantage.
Sherrill’s 2025 victory helped Democrats oust five Republican Assembly members, expanding their majority to 57-23 — their largest caucus since the 1973 Watergate landslide.
Over the full decade, Democrats gained one Senate seat and five Assembly seats. The state’s U.S. House delegation went from six Democrats and six Republicans to an 11-1 Democratic majority after gaining one seat in 2016 and four in 2018. After a party switch (Jeff Van Drew) and a flip (when Tom Kean Jr. defeated Tom Malinowski), New Jersey now has nine Democrats and three Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives.
The registration numbers show that Republicans are stronger in New Jersey than they were when Trump first won the nomination, particularly at the Shore and across parts of South Jersey. They also show that the GOP has recovered ground since the Democratic registration surge peaked in 2020.
But those gains have not yet translated into a statewide victory.
Heading into the 2026 Trump midterm elections, Democrats have won six consecutive races for president and governor, expanded their legislative majorities under two different maps, remain the state’s largest registration group, and hold a larger numerical advantage over Republicans than they did when Trump first became the Republican nominee.
Since Trump became president, Cumberland and Salem counties have flipped from blue to red, while Burlington and Somerset, both Republican, are now all Democratic.
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