Over 1.6 million votes have been cast in advance of Tuesday’s general election in New Jersey, with in-person early voting eclipsing vote-by-mail for the first time, according to an analysis conducted by Ryan Dubicki, an election researcher for the Associated Press.
New Jerseyans cast 882,921 early votes during the first seven days of in-person early voting, and election officials have recorded receiving 724,219 vote-by-mail ballots
Statewide, Republicans have cast 8,774 more early votes than Democrats, leading 321,574 (36.4%) to 312,800 (35.4%). Unaffiliated voters have cast 242,701 (27.5%).
Almost three times as many Democrats as Republicans have returned their mail-in ballots: 430,863 Democrats (58.7%), 150,188 Republicans (20.5%), and 150,309 unaffiliateds (20.5%)
Of the 1,112,861 VBMs mailed by county clerks across New Jersey, 66% of them have already been returned. There are 378,642 outstanding mail-in ballots: 170,689 Democrats, 63,360 Republicans, 139,443 unaffiliateds, and 3,150 from voters registered as members of a minor or defunct political party. The return rate for Democrats is 71.6%, for Republicans, it’s 69.7%, and for unaffiliateds, it is 51.9%.
It is unclear how many provisional ballots have been cast in-person at early voting centers statewide; the number one cause of provisional ballots are voters who received a mail-in ballot but came to vote in-person anyway.
The total advance ballot is 46% Republican, 29% Democratic, and 24% unaffiliated.
7th District
In New Jersey’s 7th district, where Tom Kean. Jr., a freshman GOP congressman, faces Democrat Sue Altman in a key national House race, 185,000 advance votes have already been marked as cast. In total, 38.9% are from Democrats, 36.2% from Republicans, and 24.4% from unaffiliateds. Republicans are leading among early votes, and Democrats are ahead in vote-by-mail.
Among in-person early voters, 45,899 (44.5%) ballots were cast by Republicans, 29,422 (28.5%) by Democrats, and 27,136 (26.3%) by unaffiliateds.
Vote-by-mail ballots recorded as received favor Democrats, 42,561 (52%) to 21,035 (26%) for Republicans; unaffiliated voters have returned 17,985 ballots (22%).
In NJ-7, there are 35,605 unreturned VBMS: 14,251 Democrats (40%); 7,807 Republicans (22%)’ and 13,303 unaffiliateds (37%).