After eight days of early voting in New Jersey, Democrats now have a slight edge in statewide in-person early voting and a commanding lead in vote-by-mail ballots, an analysis by Associated Press election researcher Ryan Dubicki shows.
But in New Jersey’s 7th district, where Rep. Tom Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield) and Democrat Sue Altman are locked in a competitive race that could determine control of the U.S. House of Representatives, both parties are neck-and-neck on votes already cast.
Voters in NJ-7 have cast 202,023 advance votes as of Saturday night, a 31.6% turnout so far. The 7th included 118,665 early votes, where Republicans have a 17,143-vote advantage, and 83,358 vote-by-mail ballots, where Democrats have a 21,863-vote edge.
County clerks mailed out 117,561 mail-in ballots in the 7th.
* Democrats requested 56,820 VBMs, 48.3% of the total mailed, and have returned 43,212. That’s a return rate of 76.1%, with 13,609 outstanding mail-in ballots.
* Republicans requested 28,857 VBMs, 24.5% of the total mailed, and have returned 21,349. That’s a return rate of 74%, with 7,508 outstanding mail-in ballots.
* Unaffiliated voters requested 31,312 VBMs, with 27% of the total mailed, and have returned 18,465. That’s a return rate of 59%, with 12,848 outstanding mail-in ballots.
Republicans in the 7th district have cast 51,360 in-person early votes (43%), while Democrats cast 34,217 (29%); there are 32,298 early votes (27%) from unaffiliated voters.
Statewide, the 1,774,534 total votes cast in advance of Tuesday’s election through last night represents a 26% voter turnout, or 29% of active New Jersey voters.
Of the 751,835 returned VBMs, 58% are from Democrats, 20% from Republicans, and 21% from unaffiliated voters. The Democratic return rate, while the GOP return rate is 71%; unaffiliateds have returned 67.5%.
Democrats have cast 364,041 early votes, while 360,338 are from Republicans, 291,265 from unaffiliated voters, and 7,055 from minor and defunct political parties.