New Jersey Democrats have cast nearly two-thirds of all vote-by-mail ballots returned so far in the November 3 midterm elections, with Democratic voters substantially outpacing Republicans in all 12 congressional districts, according to an analysis by Umichvoter.
As of Friday, 435,358 mail-in ballots had been returned statewide, including 285,229 from registered Democrats (65.5%), 82,380 from Republicans (18.9%), and 67,749 from unaffiliated voters and members of other parties (15.6%).
Democrats have returned nearly 3.5 ballots for every one a Republican has, though those numbers reflect party registration rather than votes for individual candidates.
The 435,358 ballots represent 6.5% of New Jersey’s 6,725,177 registered voters as of October 1. But with roughly 568,000 inactive voters still on the rolls, the participation rate increases to 7.1% of approximately 6.16 million active registered voters.
Democrats have returned mail ballots at a rate of 11.1% of their registered voters, compared with 4.9% of Republicans and approximately 2.8% of unaffiliated voters.
The Democratic advantage extends into all three Republican-held congressional districts, including the closely watched 7th district contest between Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield) and Democrat Rebecca Bennett.
In Kean’s district, Democrats have returned 26,907 ballots, or 58.9% of the district’s total, compared with 10,680 Republicans (23.4%). Another 8,098 ballots, or 17.7%, came from unaffiliated voters and members of other parties.
In the 2nd district, where Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-Dennis) faces Democrat Zachary Mullock, Democrats account for 22,730 returned ballots (57.9%), compared with 10,794 Republicans (27.5%) and 5,708 unaffiliated and other voters (14.6%).
Even in the heavily Republican 4th district, where Rep. Chris Smith (R-Manchester) faces Democrat Rachel Peace, Democrats account for 50.9% of returned mail ballots, compared with 31.7% for Republicans. Democrats have returned 16,808 ballots to 10,476 for Republicans.
In the 11th district, where freshman Rep. Analilia Mejia (D-Glen Ridge) faces Republican Joe Hathaway, Democrats account for 24,754 returned ballots (67%), compared with 6,507 Republicans (17.6%).
In the 5th district, Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wyckoff) faces Republican Sean Kirrane. Democrats have returned 21,099 ballots (63.9%), compared with 6,246 Republicans (18.9%).
In the 3rd district, Rep. Herb Conaway (D-Delran) faces Republican Michael McGuire. Democrats have returned 31,829 ballots (65.5%), compared with 9,367 Republicans (19.3%).
In the 1st district, Rep. Donald Norcross (D-Camden) faces Republican Damon Galdo. Democrats have returned 50,970 ballots (72.2%), compared with 10,949 Republicans (15.5%). The district has the largest number of returned Democratic mail ballots in the state.
In the 6th district, Rep. Frank Pallone (D-Long Branch) faces Republican Hillary Herzig. Democrats have returned 25,089 ballots (69.1%), compared with 5,429 Republicans (15%).
In the 9th district, Rep. Nellie Pou (D-North Haledon) faces Republican Rosemary Pino. Democrats account for 11,672 returned ballots (65%), compared with 3,165 Republicans (17.6%).
In the 10th district, Rep. LaMonica McIver (D-Newark) faces Republican Carmen Bucco. Democrats account for 13,613 returned ballots (80.7%), the highest Democratic share of any congressional district, compared with 1,239 Republicans (7.3%).
In the 8th district, Rep. Rob Menendez (D-Jersey City) faces three independent and minor-party candidates, Aristotle Eliopoulos, Craig Honts and Da’Shone Hughey. No Republican is running. Democrats have returned 9,375 ballots (79.1%), compared with 825 registered Republicans (7%).
In the open 12th district, where Democrat Adam Hamawy faces Republican Gregg Mele in the race to succeed retiring Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-Ewing), Democrats have returned 30,383 ballots (67.1%), compared with 6,703 Republicans (14.8%).
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