OPINION
For the second cycle in the last four, Democrats in New Jersey and beyond are licking their wounds. President Trump will again inherit a strong economy this January, one created by a Democratic administration with Democratic policies. And Democrats are again asking themselves one question: how did this happen?
There is no shortage of post-election takes online, but the vast majority I’ve seen are in the “confirming my prior assumptions” category. I think we owe it to ourselves to look at this election on an objective basis, going past feelings and vibes and looking at the nuts and bolts of what actually happened, and what we can do about it moving forward.
As you can imagine, I have no shortage of national political takes. But I try here to stick only to what affects New Jersey. And I’ll acknowledge up top that any analysis at this point is inherently more gut than data – a real post-election data analysis is happening, but it will take months.
I hope this serves more as a jumping-off point for discussion and debate, rather than a litany of edicts. I’ll save those for Stomping Grounds.
Here is what I think happened.
1. The final election results are far more nuanced than what we saw and felt on election night. Donald Trump won a resounding victory nationally, winning the popular vote, breaking down the blue wall, and putting together a diverse coalition of voters across gender, race, and religion.
But let’s dig a little deeper. Though Trump won (or is likely to win, as of this writing) all seven swing states (GA, NV, PA, MI, WI, AZ, NC), Democrats are on their way to holding US Senate seats in four of five states (there was no US Senate election in NC or GA). Though we don’t yet know who will win the House, Democrats will likely at least hold Republicans to a very small majority.
It’s hard to consider this election a vast national rejection of the Democratic party when we look at it through that lens. Consider the 2008 election, a true movement election which had Democrats winning the White House, Senate, and House with historic majorities. While Republicans may have a trifecta in Washington, their majorities are very small.
Here in New Jersey, Donald Trump shocked us by pulling within five points of winning our state. But what did that mean down ballot? Other than narrative victories, the answer is nothing. Democrats won crucial county races in areas in this election even in places where Vice President Harris underperformed, and Democrats held all nine U.S. House seats and a U.S. Senate seat. Much like 2021, New Jersey Republicans walked away with little more than nice headlines and a moral victory.
2. Where Democrats invested, they saw results against a red wave. Where they didn’t, they underperformed. Deep blue states like NJ, NY, and IL saw shockingly close election results this week. But they all share something in common – there was not a dime spent by either national campaign to communicate to voters here, nor was there any significant statewide GOTV operation.
On the contrary, Democrats throughout our state phonebanked, canvassed, and donated to races outside of our state. Towns like Maplewood and Montclair sent busload after busload of volunteers to Pennsylvania every weekend, while much of the small and big dollar investments went to Kamala Harris or competitive Senate races elsewhere. And we know that Democrats lost less ground in swing states than noncompetitive states.
I’m not sure this was a mistake – swing states needed all the help they could get (clearly), and New Jersey was never going to be a tipping point state, much less a swing state. But we must factor this in as we look at this year’s election results.
At the same time, we know that the Harris campaign was effective where it engaged. Across the seven battleground states, the swing from ’20 to ’24 was 3.1 points. Across the other 43 states, it was more than double: 6.7 points. This all may sound like cold comfort in a loss, but that performance likely saved four US Senate seats and kept the Harris campaign in the game in very difficult circumstances.
3. I still have more questions than answers, but I know these three things about Donald Trump for a fact.
– One, Donald Trump is a uniquely strong political figure when he is on the ballot. For the third cycle in a row, he overperformed polls and shocked pundits. He was able to win with a diverse coalition of working class voters that other Republican candidates can only dream of.
– Two, we know that his popularity has never extended to a cycle in which he didn’t appear on the ballot. Democrats overperformed in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2022, and 2023, both statewide and nationally. And while 2021 saw a national red wave during a particularly challenging time for the Biden administration, I don’t think anyone marks that up to a guy that just lost the White House and was privately licking his wounds throughout the majority of the year.
And while we know that Trump can be a kingmaker in Republican primaries, he’s rarely been able to help Republicans down the ticket, including this year. As of right now, despite Trump winning the competitive battleground states, only one Republican Senate candidate has been called (and as of this writing, Casey has not conceded). And Republicans are on track to lose seats in the House of Representatives, and at a minimum not make material gains to their majority.
– And third, thankfully, we know that Donald Trump will never run for President again. He is constitutionally barred from doing so.
We have no reason to believe that the “Trump effect” will be an electoral issue moving forward. The Democrats have a far bigger problem with the Latino community when Trump is on the ballot than when he’s not (Democrats have seen steady erosion among Latino communities in non-Trump elections, but having Trump on the ticket exacerbates the issue). Does that mean we don’t have any problems to fix? No, but let’s ensure we’re solving for problems that exist in non-Trump elections, which is (thankfully) what our elections will all be moving forward.
I’m not sure it’s a great use of time, energy and money trying to figure out Donald Trump’s electoral appeal – not only may it not be possible, it’s behind us (or at least we *think* it is – he can still run for VP!). I believe it’s a far better use of our time and energy looking at how to win the elections we know will have ahead of us.
4. That all said, the 2024 election results were bad, and Democrats should be concerned. The excuse of “this was just a Trump election” is not a get-out-of-jail-free card. We should not let ourselves off the hook. Any excuse to take a good hard look at how we can better operate as a party and engage voters is a good one, and Trump coming within spitting distance of winning our state is as good a reason as any.
Let’s not overlearn any lessons from 2024, but let’s not ignore it either. Let’s channel this disappointment into asking ourselves some uncomfortable, hard questions. Here’s one I’m asking: how can New Jersey Democrats learn from other political operations and put forward the best possible product for every single election cycle, regardless of circumstance?
5. It was an uphill battle, but Sue Altman performed well in CD7. Sue ran an aggressive energizing campaign in a difficult district for Democrats. There were many critics saying she wasn’t the right candidate for the district, and she proved them wrong.
How do we know this? Without the benefit of full town-by-town election results, let’s look at some rough math. In 2020, Joe Biden won New Jersey by 16 points, and the not-yet-formed current CD7 by three. In 2024, Kamala Harris underperformed Joe Biden by 11 points, and Sue Altman lost by about six and a half. We see here that Sue had a very real path to victory in any other election cycle – no Democrat is coming close to winning CD7 when the top of the ticket only wins the state by five points.
I can’t chide New Jersey Republicans above for moral victories and then claim one for Sue, so I won’t. Nor would she want one. But looking at the final data, we see that she ran a strong race amidst a Trump barrage.
6. Presidential elections are different from state and local elections. They involve different electorates, different issues, and different levels of engagement within New Jersey. We cannot compare 2024 with 2023’s legislative midterms in any way, shape or form. We also can’t compare 2023 or 2024 with 2025’s gubernatorial primary and general elections. We need different game plans,
Let’s remember this: New Jersey Democrats not only performed well in their legislative midterms one year ago, they actually added to their legislative caucuses. And they did so in the second midterm of a governor of their same party, something historically unheard of. Did New Jersey change dramatically in the last year, or was this a fundamentally different election leading to a different result? We can always learn and improve regardless, but we must keep that in mind while we analyze and strategize.
7. Agendas matter. In 2017, Governor Murphy ran on an agenda so aggressive and so popular, many in the media were trivializing it, calling it unrealistic and unachievable (He then went out and achieved the vast majority of it, but that’s a topic for another day). President Biden ran on an aggressive agenda in 2020, putting forth policies that would fundamentally alter the lives of Americans for the better. Maybe he didn’t achieve all of them, like student loan forgiveness, but the fight itself is important to voters. I don’t think Democrats ran on much of an agenda in 2024, and it showed.
NJ Democrats have an opportunity going into 2025 to articulate a real vision for the state that will make an impact on people’s lives. In 2023, they ran toward things like wind energy, property tax relief, education, and fully funding our pensions. We now have another opportunity to put forward aggressive, impactful policies that improve the lives of New Jerseyans.
Paul Wellstone put it simple and succinctly: politics is about the improvement of people’s lives. Let’s remember that as we form our platforms.
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Whether you agree or disagree with any of the above, I’d love to hear your thoughts. You can DM me on X here.
Dan Bryan is a former senior advisor to Gov. Phil Murphy and is now the owner of his own public affairs firm. He co-writes Stomping Grounds weekly on the New Jersey Globe with Alex Wilkes.