Democrats hold a commanding 23-point lead over Republicans in New Jersey’s congressional races, according to a new Fairleigh Dickinson University poll that finds affordability concerns driving voters toward Democratic candidates and a dramatic decline in the number of New Jerseyans identifying with President Donald Trump’s MAGA movement.
The poll, released early this morning, shows 55% of likely voters supporting Democratic congressional candidates and 32% backing Republicans. Among voters who say they are very likely to vote or have already cast ballots, the Democratic advantage grows to 26 points, 59%-33%.
“There just isn’t any good news to be found for Republican candidates this cycle,” said FDU poll director Dan Cassino. “There are some issues that are better for Republicans than others, but voters just don’t care about them as much, and the issues that are driving voters are helping Democrats.”
FDU conducted an experiment to see how different issues shape congressional voting preferences, randomly asking respondents about three of six issues before asking about their likelihood of voting and their preferred congressional candidate.
The results suggest that Democrats benefit when voters focus on affordability, gas prices, and checks on Trump’s power, while Republicans fare comparatively better when immigration and transgender issues are emphasized.
Among voters asked about affordability, Democrats led by 27 points, 58%-31%. Their advantage was 26 points when gas prices were emphasized and 25 points when voters considered checks on Trump’s power.
The Democratic lead narrowed to 16 points when immigration was emphasized and 19 points when voters were asked about transgender issues.
The experiment also found that the issues voters considered immediately before stating their congressional preferences could produce larger differences. Democrats led by 36 points, 62%-26%, when the war in Iran was the immediately preceding issue, compared with a 15-point advantage, 53%-38%, when immigration was raised immediately beforehand.
Affordability was the most important issue for voters, with 90% saying it mattered to their congressional vote, followed by gas prices at 87%, immigration at 83%, and the war in Iran at 82%. Just 38% considered transgender issues important.
“There are some issue areas that favor Republicans; the problem is that they’re not the ones voters think are important,” Cassino stated. “Republicans might do better when voters are thinking about trans issues, but voters are thinking about affordability and gas prices.”
The experiment also measured how issues relate to turnout enthusiasm. Among Republicans asked about immigration immediately before the turnout question, 86% said they were very likely to vote or had already voted, compared with 73% of those asked about affordability.
“Not only does thinking about affordability make voters more likely to support Democrats in the midterms, it makes people more likely to vote in the first place,” Cassino said. “Republicans desperately need to reframe the race around their issues if they want to get competitive, but it may just be too late.”
The poll also found that Republicans have lost much of the ground Trump gained among younger and Hispanic voters in the 2024 presidential election.
Voters under 30 favor Democrats by 63%-20%, while Hispanic voters support Democrats by 58%-29%. Democrats also lead among white voters, 52%-36%, and voters without college degrees, 49%-35%.
Independent voters favor Democrats, 36%-25%, although another 25% remain undecided.
The survey found that 8% of Republicans intend to vote for Democratic congressional candidates, compared with 5% of Democrats who plan to support Republicans.
Another striking finding is the sharp decline in voters identifying with Trump’s MAGA movement.
In January 2024, 27% of New Jersey voters described themselves as MAGA. That number dropped to 16% in March 2026 and has now fallen to just 10%.
Among Republicans, roughly one-third now identify as MAGA, compared with more than two-thirds in early 2024.
“We’d expect there to be more MAGA voters during the run-up to a Presidential election in 2024,” Cassino said. “But a drop from 16 percent to 10 percent in just 6 months is remarkable, and shows how toxic the MAGA brand has become, even among Republicans.”
The statewide generic ballot measures overall partisan preferences rather than individual congressional contests, including New Jersey’s competitive 7th district, where Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr. faces Democrat Rebecca Bennett.
The FDU Poll surveyed 807 New Jersey voters from October 16-22 with a margin of error of +/-3.4%.
RELATED ARTICLES
-
-
February 10, 2023 -
