Poll: NJ-7 race is too close to call

DISCLAIMER: Polls can help explain elections, but they’re imperfect, as New Jersey’s three most recent statewide general elections show: nearly every pollster projected results that differed substantially from the actual outcomes.  Poll results should be treated as data points and guideposts in complex elections, not as ironclad predictions of what will happen; the same is doubly true for internal polls, which are conducted with a specific agenda and candidate in mind.

A new InsiderNJ/StimSight Research poll shows Democrat Rebecca Bennett with a five-point lead over Rep. Tom Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield), 47%-42%, including among likely voters in New Jersey’s 7th district congressional race, where the two candidates are locked in a horse race within the margin of error.

An independent, Seamus Patrick O’Toole, who was identified with his slogan, “Stop Israel’s Genocide,” is at 1%, with 10% of voters still undecided.

The poll separately asked how likely voters were to vote for each candidate: 33% said they would definitely vote for Bennett, compared with 30% for Kean.

In the 7th district, U.S. Senator Cory Booker has a six-point, 49%-43%, lead over his Republican opponent, former Tabernacle Deputy Mayor Justin Murphy.

The poll shows Kean with an upside-down 37%-60% job approval rating.  The same poll puts President Donald Trump at 42%-58%, and Gov. Mikie Sherrill at 49%-50%.

Bennett has favorables of 40%-30%, while Kean is at 37%-55%.  Bennett is less familiar to voters, while Kean is better known but underwater.

Trump is at 41%-56%, Booker at 41%-53%, Murphy at 15%-13%, and Sherrill at 49%-47%.

StimSight Research is run by a respected veteran pollster, Patrick Murray, the former head of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

InsiderNJ, which commissioned the poll, is owned by Democratic National Committeeman John F.X. Graham and his son, Michael.  The two have contributed $10,500 to Bennett’s campaign to unseat Kean.  John Graham has also contributed over $500,000 this cycle to Democratic candidates this cycle, including Booker.

Bennett leads 46%-37% among unaffiliated voters, 47%-38% among self-identified independents, and 52%-37% among self-identified moderates.  Kean leads 40%-40% among men and 50%-34% among likely voters with no college degree; Bennett leads 54%-34% among women and 55%-37% among those who graduated college.

The poll’s issue findings help explain the close race: Kean leads decisively on immigration, crime, taxes, and electricity costs, while Bennett leads on opposing Trump, healthcare, reproductive rights, Social Security, and threats to democracy.  The poll also finds a broadly negative environment: 69% say the country is on the wrong track, while 47% say their household is worse off financially than a year ago.  The most important issues were illegal immigration and protecting Social Security and Medicare, at 31% each, followed by making groceries and other goods more affordable at 28%.

The StimSight Research poll was conducted between September 8-12 with a sample size of 498 likely voters and a margin of error of +/- 4.7%.