A poll found that even with tax deductions that disproportionately benefit New Jersey residents, the GOP’s recent budget bill is disapproved by a majority of the state’s voters.
Wednesday results from the Fairleigh Dickinson University poll show 27% of the state’s voters approve of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, while 61% disapprove. The wide-ranging bill is expected to knock hundreds of thousands of New Jerseyans off of Medicaid or food stamps, though many tax bills will likely go down across the state. Initial results from the poll, including an 8-point lead for Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) in the gubernatorial race, were released Tuesday morning.
The budget bill included a provision that would raise the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap from $10,000 to $40,000 for the next four years, providing relief especially impactful in higher-tax states like New Jersey. But Dan Cassino, the executive director of the FDU poll, said respondents who were told about the tax deductions were not significantly more likely to support the budget.
“The hope was that putting in the SALT deduction would make the budget bill more palatable to voters,” Cassino said in a release. “But even voters who are going to get a tax cut from this bill don’t seem to like it.”
Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield), the 7th district congressman who is expected to face another tight re-election battle this fall, was one of many blue-state Republicans to fight for an increase in the SALT deduction cap. Cassino said some independents were more likely to support the bill if the SALT cap was mentioned, but overall support remained underwater.
“The bump in support among independents is good news for Republican incumbents like Tom Kean, Jr, who voted for the bill,” he said. “But even an eight-point increase isn’t great when sixty percent of independents say that they oppose the bill.”
The bill, trumpeted by President Donald Trump, has become an issue in the governor’s race, with Sherrill attacking Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli over his support for the legislation.
“These figures are very much in line with how the bill is viewed nationally,” said Cassino. “Tax cuts are generally pretty popular but pairing them with cuts in healthcare spending more than cancels out that support.”
The poll also surveyed voters on NJ Transit, which has faced occasionally severe disruptions from weather, labor strikes, and malfunctions since last year. The transit agency received passing grades from the respondents. When asked to give a letter grade to NJ Transit, 6% gave an A, 28% gave a B, 30% gave a C, 13% gave a D, 8% gave an F, and 15% weren’t sure or did not answer.
Republican and Democratic scores for NJ Transit were largely similar.
“It’s been six years since Governor Murphy vowed to fix NJ Transit, even if it killed him, and while it’s getting a passing grade from most voters, there’s still lots of room for improvement,” said Cassino.
The FDU poll surveyed 806 likely voters between July 17 and 23 with a margin of error of +/- 3.4%.