Internal polls can drive people bonkers, not that there’s anything wrong with that.
An internal poll conducted for Ras Baraka’s campaign last week shows some tightening in the race for the Democratic nomination for Governor of New Jersey: Mikie Sherrill is in first with 18%, with Baraka and Steve Fulop each at 14%. After that: Sean Spiller (11%), Josh Gottheimer (9%), and Steve Sweeney (8%). That leaves the undecideds around 26%, as tens of millions in spending begins to influence actual voters in the race to succeed term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy.
The Baraka poll had a sample size of 1,200 likely Democratic primary voters and a margin of error of +/- 3.5%. They are conducted by MDW Communications, a Democratic political consulting firm.
Another Baraka internal poll from March had Sherrill leading Baraka, 13.5% to 11.5%, followed by Fulop (8.6%), Spiller (8%), Gottheimer (5.3%), and Sweeney (4.7%). And a February internal poll from the Baraka campaign had Sherrill at 15.8%, followed by Baraka (10.1%), Spiller (9.6%), Fulop (5%), Gottheimer (4.7%), and Sweeney (2.7%).
Sherrill’s internal poll last week had her leading Gottheimer, 25%-15%; behind them were Fulop and Baraka, each at 14%, with Spiller at 12% and Sweeney at 6%. Fulop’s internal poll the week before had Sherrill leading him, 20%-14%, with Baraka at 12%, Gottheimer at 11%, Spiller at 9%, and Sweeney at 8%.
“Some advice – disregard internal polls, including mine, as there always is a discussion and an agenda when released — that’s the truth,” Fulop said on social media last week. “This campaign will change meaningfully in the next eight weeks (in) ways that nobody can predict. It is tight.”
An April 11, 1997 Quinnipiac University poll showed Rep. Rob Andrews leading James E. McGreevey by eight points, 21%-13%, with former Morris County Prosecutor Michael Murphy at 10%. The final results: McGreevey (40%), Andrews (37%), and Murphy (21%).
HUZZAH: Univision is expected to release a poll this week of roughly 3,000 likely Hispanic voters in the New Jersey Democratic primary.
ESSEX COUNTY HAS A CONCLAVE VOTE: Out of the 135 cardinals eligible to vote in the upcoming conclave to elect a new Pope, ten are from the United States, and one of them is from New Jersey: His Eminence Joseph W. Tobin, the Archbishop of Newark. Tobin came to New Jersey more than eight years ago to replace John Myers after serving as the Archbishop of Indianapolis.
In Newark, Tobin is a registered Democrat and a frequent vote-by-mail voter. He voted in Democratic primaries in 2016, 2020, 2023, and 2024 – four of the last nine – and voted in six of the last nine general elections: 2016, 2017, 2018, 2020, 2021, and 2024, records show. (The conclave should be over by June 10, but just in case, the Cardinal might want to fill out his VBM ballot before he leaves for Rome.)
Tobin received praise for his statement this month on the death of Theodore McCarrick, the former cardinal and archbishop of Newark who was defrocked after credible accusations of sexual abuse from decades ago came to light: “I am keenly aware of the trauma this news may reignite for those victimized by Mr. McCarrick. Having listened to many survivors, I recognize the deep pain and betrayal they have endured. I continue to offer my prayers in support as they navigate their journey toward healing. As a Church, we remain steadfast in our commitment to listening to survivors, supporting their healing, and ensuring that such betrayals are never repeated.”
A VERY JERSEY MOVE: Before he passed away, the enormously popular Pope Francis might have used the playbook of generations of New Jersey county chairs who sought to influence the outcome of county committee conventions: 80% of the cardinals who will elect his successor were appointed directly by him.
STICKING TO HIS BELIEFS: At some point in 2004, Archbishop John Myers announced that supporters of abortion rights should not seek communion when they attend Mass. That included James E. McGreevey, then the Governor of New Jersey. McGreevey said at the time that he disagreed with Myers, but would honor his request, noting that his belief in the separation of church and state allowed him to be committed to his faith and his staunchly pro-choice stance on abortion. “It’s a false choice in America between one’s faith and constitutional obligation,” he said at the time. Myers, more conservative than Joseph Tobin, later walked back his statement, saying he wasn’t specifically targeting McGreevey, noted how the two were working together on social services issues, and issued an apology. Today, Tobin serves on the board of the non-profit McGreevey runs, the NJ Re-Entry Corporation.
PAPAL CANDIDATE WITH THE MOST JERSEY-SOUNDING NAME: On the New York Times list of contenders to become the next Pope is Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, who serves as the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem. The 60-year-old Pizzaballa might not become Tobin’s choice, but he could win an endorsement of NJ.com, which is bewitched by everything involving pizza. Backup plan: Pizzaballa becomes a phantom Assembly candidate in the 4th legislative district.
INTERESTING: Republican State Chairman Bob Hugin has contributed $250,000 to the Republican National Committee this year.
OFF TO THE RACES: County Clerks are mailing 683,550 vote-by-mail ballots for the 2025 New Jersey primary election; about 74% of them are going to registered Democrats, a sign that GOP voters have still not opted to receive automatic VBMs. The Watcher uses data from Associated Press election researcher Ryan Dubicki. And by the way, three Democratic VBM ballots have already been marked as returned.
“TO ALL OF MY FELLOW HUNDREDS OF REPUBLICANS, IT’S LIKE PLAYING AN AWAY GAME IN PHILADELPHIA”: A gubernatorial candidate forum sponsored by the New Jersey Institute of Social Justice last week attracted five Democrats and one Republican, State Sen. Jon Bramnick. “Despite the advice from all my advisors, I thought it was more important than ever to come here and show unity,” said Bramnick. “It’s more important than ever we got to stand together as one country and as Americans and work together and love each other, it shows respect and that’s going to be my goal as governor of the state of New Jersey.” He suggested that he would consider Newark Mayor Ras Baraka for lieutenant governor, but apparently, he was kidding. Still, he could do worse.
DROPPED: Sussex County Republicans cast over 13,000 votes in the 2021 gubernatorial primary, but former Englewood Cliffs Mayor Mario Kranjac has withdrawn from a candidate forum sponsored by the county GOP organization next month. That will leave Jack Ciattarelli, Bill Spadea, and Jon Bramnick alone at the forum, moderated by radio host Richard Zeoli. In another life, Zeoli was a Sussex County freeholder and Republican county chairman.
HE SPEAKS THE TRUTH: Appearing before the Senate Budget and Appropriations Committee yesterday, Judge Michael Blee highlighted a new policy of livestreaming election-related matters. “We want citizens to be engaged and informed about what takes place in our courts,” he said. As the assignment judge in Atlantic County, Blee led the state in opening election matters to the public and the media at a time when several other judges resisted doing the same.
CLIFFSIDE PARK, CANADA: A Bergen County native and Rutgers graduate who played in an Italian wedding band and opened for Hootie and the Blowfish as a member of Soul Engines in the 1990s, is seeking re-election as a Member of Parliament in one of Canada’s most competitive House of Commons districts. Liberal Tim Louis won the Kitchener-based district by 251 votes in 2015, by 365 votes in 2019, and by 567 votes in 2021.
SIGNATURE AFFIXED: Gov. Phil Murphy signed a new law on Tuesday that exempts mothers who are nursing or expressing milk for a child up to age one from jury duty. “By exempting nursing mothers from jury duty, this bill acknowledges the unique personal health and caregiving challenges that new mothers face during the critical first few weeks and months after delivering a baby,” said First Lady Tammy Murphy, who leads the state’s Nurture NJ initiative.
GEARING UP FOR THE GENERAL ELECTION: Black Men Vote has hired New Jersey native, Michael Bland, to direct an independent voter turnout operation for the gubernatorial election. Bland has built a career as a political operative since losing a Long Branch council race in 2010, at age 24. He’s the son of veteran political insider Kellie Drakeford, who has been a fixture in New Jersey politics for decades. Drakeford held senior positions with Senators Bob Menendez and Bob Torricelli, Gov. Jim McGreevey, and Frank Pallone. She was President Obama’s Region II Administrator for the Small Business Administration.
BY THE NUMBERS: The Center for American Women in Politics at Rutgers’ Eagleton Institute has a new survey on women state legislators by race and ethnicity. In New Jersey, only Black women hold more seats (16.7%) than the percentage of their population (27.1%). Latinas represent 11.3% of the state’s population, but only 6.7% of legislative seats; AAPI women represent 1.7% of the New Jersey Legislature, less than the 5.9% population; and 27.1% of New Jersey residents are White women who occupy 16.7% of the legislative seats.
ADVICE COLUMN: If you’re single and hoping to meet that special someone, stay the hell away from the IHOP in Union City, where Bob and Nadine Menendez met. Nadine Menendez was convicted this week on federal corruption charges; the former U.S. Senator faces eleven years in prison, while his wife – who is scheduled to be sentenced in June – is also looking at significant jail time.
TRIVIA: The first woman to serve in the United States Senate was Rebecca Latimer Felton, an 87-year-old segregationist from Georgia who served one day in office in 1922, becoming the last enslaver to serve in the Congress. The incumbent had died in September, and the sitting governor became a candidate for the seat; Thomas Hardwick wanted to appoint someone who wouldn’t try and run against him, and picking Felton, the widow of a three-term congressman, he thought, would help him women voters in the post-19th Amendment era forget his opposition to the suffrage movement. But Harwick wound up losing the Democratic primary by a double-digit margin to State Supreme Court Justice Walter George, who held the seat for more than 34 years. Because Felton was named while the Senate was in recess – they didn’t come back until after the November special election – it was possible that she would never be sworn in. But George delayed his oath so Felton could spend a day in the Senate, which won him the approval of women voters in Georgia. Click HERE to watch an interview with Senator Felton from 1929.
BOOK & FILM: If you’re enthralled by the details of any election – from fire commissioner to pope — then don’t miss The Making of the Popes 1978: The Politics of Intrigue in the Vatican. The author, Andrew M. Greeley, a priest and novelist, offers a look into the last days of Paul VI, the election of John Paul I, and after he died 33 days later, John Paul II. You can also try White Smoke: A Novel of Papal Election, which was Greeley’s fictionalized story of “Vatican intrigue meets Chicago-style politics.” But better than that is The Shoes of a Fisherman by Morris West about the election of a Ukrainian Pope; it was released the day Pope John XXIII died and became a New York Times best seller. The best movie on a papal election is a recent one: Conclave. It became available on Amazon Prime Video on April 22.
THINGS A CANDIDATE SHOULD NEVER SAY: “The only poll that matters is the one on Election Day.”
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