If New Jersey Democrats really try to redraw the state’s congressional map before the 2028 elections, as some state leaders are starting to discuss, they’d need buy-in from the state’s sitting House Democrats, whose own districts may have to change substantially in order to fashion a more favorable map. Those discussions are still in their early phases, but it’s not looking like there will be a groundswell of opposition from the state’s Democratic congressional delegation.
In conversations with the New Jersey Globe about hypothetical mid-decade redistricting, several Democratic incumbents said that while it wasn’t a road they wanted to go down, they felt that Republican efforts to redraw maps elsewhere gives them little choice but to at least consider it.
“The question that Democrats are asking other Democrats is, are we going to lie there and take it, or are we going to stand up and fight for our ability to govern?” Rep. Herb Conaway (D-Delran) said. “It’s not a fight that we undertake lightly, but without fighting, we won’t be able to do the job we need to do for the American people.”
When Democrats on the state’s redistricting commission drew the current map in 2021, they carefully crafted district lines they believed would reliably elect at least nine Democratic House members every cycle, regardless of the national environment. So far it’s worked: Democrats have held all nine seats that were drawn for their party (though one of them, the 9th district, has started to teeter), and the party has high hopes of flipping at least one more district this year.
But with red states adding more than a dozen new Republican-leaning seats this cycle, an effort kickstarted by President Donald Trump’s administration and further accelerated by the Supreme Court’s recent Voting Rights Act decision, some New Jersey Democrats no longer believe their already-favorable map is enough.
Senate President Nick Scutari (D-Linden), a recent proponent of a redraw, has said Democrats may try to pursue an 11-1 map that limits Republicans to just one reliable seat statewide. (To do so, the legislature would need to put a constitutional amendment on the ballot as a statewide referendum; voters could then approve, or reject, the proposal to nix the state’s bipartisan redistricting commission and switch to a more partisan system ahead of 2028.)
The part of the state that would likely witness the largest changes on such a map is South Jersey, where Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-Dennis) holds a seat that favors Republicans but not overwhelmingly. Van Drew could be drawn into a Democratic-leaning seat, or his home territory in the 2nd district could be combined with the deep-red 4th district, which Rep. Chris Smith (R-Manchester) has represented for decades.
Either way, the Democratic congressman whose own district would have to change the most to accommodate a new South Jersey configuration is Rep. Donald Norcross (D-Camden), whose Camden-based district is currently solid blue. Norcross said that he’d be open to changing the map, at least in theory: “I’m part of the team, and we’ll do it as a team.”
“[Gerrymandering] is not good for our country, but given that this is what is being served to us, we have to look at it and, if possible, take advantage of it,” he said.
On the 2021 redistricting commission, however, two allies of Democratic power broker George Norcross vetoed any map ideas that would have weakened his brother’s district in order to make others bluer. Asked whether he’d be willing to shed some of that blue territory mid-decade, Rep. Norcross demurred, saying that the state’s most Democratic areas are in the north.
Van Drew, for his part, warned that making his district more competitive could give Republicans a better shot in other districts: “You’ve got to be careful what you wish for sometimes,” he said of Democrats. And Smith, who has survived multiple attempts to gerrymander him out over the decades, said that “whatever they do, I’m ready.”
As for North Jersey, Democrats’ top mission would likely be making Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield)’s 7th district, which the party may flip this year anyways, into a more consistently Democratic-leaning seat. There also may be interest in giving some new blue turf to Rep. Nellie Pou (D-North Haledon), whose 9th district unexpectedly voted for Donald Trump in 2024.
When the current map was drawn, a key impediment to making the 7th district bluer was Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-Ewing), who didn’t want to give up towns like Plainfield and make her own majority-minority 12th district redder and whiter. Watson Coleman, who is retiring this year, is still somewhat skeptical of a remap, but said she’d wait to see what state leaders would do; what she’d specifically oppose, she said, is a new map that makes it harder for a progressive Democrat to win her district.
“I wouldn’t want to see diluting the effort of the 12th to be a very progressive district,” she said.
Broader changes to North Jersey lines would also require other sitting incumbents who hold strongly Democratic seats to give up some of their current territory and take on new red areas. None of them sounded thrilled about the possibility, but none were all-out opposed, either.
“I’m evaluating. I’m open to discussion,” brand-new Rep. Analilia Mejia (D-Glen Ridge) said. “What I’m not open to is rigging any system for unfair advantage. I think voters having a full voice should take primacy, and that we should win on arguments.”
“We see these states, especially red states, activating very quickly to get rid of blue districts, blue representation, and specifically Black and brown representation,” Rep. LaMonica McIver (D-Newark) said. “I think we definitely have to all look at what’s happening right now and the reality of that, and see how we combat against that.”
Under the Voting Rights Act, McIver’s Newark-based 10th district has been drawn for decades to be a majority-Black seat, and it’s long been the hub of the state’s Black political power. The Supreme Court’s weakening of the VRA, however, may give mapmakers the ability to shift some heavily Democratic Black voters into other districts – though they’d likely face stiff opposition from Black political leaders if they tried to go too far.
The same is true for Rep. Rob Menendez (D-Jersey City)’s 8th district, which has had a majority-Hispanic configuration since 1992. Menendez, more than any of his colleagues, sounded actively invested in the idea of a new map, even if it means losing some of his current constituents.
“I love my district,” Menendez said. “I love each one of the municipalities in my district, and I personally would never want to change it. That being said, I will do everything to stop this administration and to stop Republicans from doing harm to the communities that I care about and represent.”
“I can’t say that this administration is an existential threat and not be prepared to do what I need to do to stop the harm that I see every day,” he added.