DISCLAIMER: Polls can be a helpful tool for understanding elections, but they are an imperfect one, as demonstrated by New Jersey’s three most recent statewide general elections, all of which had results substantially different from what nearly every pollster had projected. Poll results should be treated as data points and guideposts in complex elections, not as ironclad predictions of what will happen; the same is doubly true for internal polls, which are conducted with a specific agenda and candidate in mind. (This disclaimer will appear on all future New Jersey Globe polling stories.)
One day after Rebecca Bennett’s campaign released an internal poll showing Bennett with a huge lead in the Democratic primary for New Jersey’s 7th congressional district, one of her foes, Tina Shah, is putting out numbers that tell a different story.
According to Shah’s internal poll, which was conducted by GQR from May 3 through May 6, Bennett has a small 26%-23% edge over Shah for the nomination to challenge vulnerable Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield). The two other Democrats on the ballot, Brian Varela and Michael Roth, are further back at 10% and 7%, respectively.
Both Shah and Bennett are liked by similar percentages of voters, too: 41% of voters said they feel favorably towards Shah, and 38% said the same for Bennett. “There is no frontrunner in this race,” the polling memo states, despite Shah being “outspent 5 to 1” – though the fact that Bennett retains a lead even in a Shah internal poll does reinforce the idea that she is the candidate to beat.
Shah’s campaign had previously released a poll from February, before anyone began spending much money on the race, that found no clear leader and a huge number of undecided voters. (After voters were given positive biographies of each candidate, Shah leapt into the lead.)
Bennett has spent the last several months looking like the frontrunner for the 7th district, which Democrats have high hopes of flipping this year. A former Navy helicopter pilot, Bennett has raised more money than any other Democrat in the district, has two well-funded super PACs supporting her, and won party support in the district’s four largest counties.
Bennett’s foes, though, have long argued that her advantages are surmountable once voters learn more about them. And indeed, the battle for the 7th district’s airwaves has taken off in recent weeks, with all four candidates spending plenty of money introducing themselves; Shah, an ICU physician, is also now getting backup from the American Medical Association PAC, which began airing pro-Shah ads last week.
Yesterday, Shah began a new phase of her plan to win the nomination: a negative ad against Bennett that slams her for her past GOP party registration and campaign contributions from Palantir employees. A murky super PAC called Real Change PAC, which may be tied to the GOP, began putting out anti-Bennett ads as well this morning.
The GQR poll was conducted on behalf of Tina Shah’s campaign from May 3-6 with a sample size of 402 likely Democratic primary voters in New Jersey’s 7th congressional district and a margin of error of +/- 4.9%.