The field of Republicans running for U.S. Senate this year – including the two leading candidates, Mendham Borough Mayor Christine Serrano Glassner and developer Curtis Bashaw – remains almost completely unknown to the state’s GOP electorate, according to a poll released yesterday by Emerson College.
Asked whom they’d support in a Senate primary, a whopping 84% of Republican respondents said they were undecided. Of the small percentage who did choose a candidate, 5% went to Serrano Glassner, 4% to former Tabernacle Committeeman Justin Murphy, 3% each to Bashaw and Peter Vallorosi – who said yesterday that he’d withdraw from the race – and 2% to U.S. Navy veteran Albert Harshaw.
The GOP primary question was one of several from Emerson’s poll that was not included in yesterday’s stories in The Hill, which sponsored the poll and was the first to publish its results. (The Hill instead focused on the Democratic primary, in which Rep. Andy Kim has a massive lead, and the general election for Senate, in which indicted Senator Bob Menendez could potentially be a spoiler if he runs as an independent.)
Most notably, Emerson questioned respondents on how they plan to vote in the 2024 presidential election, and the results were closer than might be expected. In a two-way matchup between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, Biden leads 46%-39%, which if it came to pass would be a dramatic decline from his 16-point New Jersey win in 2020. If independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is added, Biden leads 41%-36%, with Kennedy pulling 8%.
Asked whether they approved of Biden’s job performance, respondents gave the president an underwater 40%-47% score. That’s far better than Menendez’s job approvals (14%-62%), but worse than those of Gov. Phil Murphy (43%-40%) and Senator Cory Booker (41%-34%).
Finally, Emerson asked voters whether they thought that the county line – the ballot design system that has been suspended for this year’s Democratic primary by a federal judge – is fair or not.
Specifically, respondents were asked the following: “In the current ballot design in New Jersey, candidates officially endorsed by leaders of local Democratic and Republican parties are listed in a single column or row in a prominent position known as ‘the line.’ Do you think this is a fair system, or not?” 62% of respondents said it was fair, versus 38% who said it was not.
The Emerson College Poll was conducted from March 26-29 with a sample size of 1,000 registered voters and a margin of error of +/- 3%. The sample included 408 Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.8% and 310 Republican primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 5.5%.