DISCLAIMER: Polls can be a helpful tool for understanding elections, but they are an imperfect one, as demonstrated by New Jersey’s three most recent statewide general elections, all of which had results substantially different from what nearly every pollster had projected. Poll results should be treated as data points and guideposts in complex elections, not as ironclad predictions of what will happen; the same is doubly true for internal polls, which are conducted with a specific agenda and candidate in mind. (This disclaimer will appear on all future New Jersey Globe polling stories.)
Rebecca Bennett has a robust lead over her three competitors in the Democratic primary for New Jersey’s 7th congressional district, according to a new poll released by pollster Patrick Murray last night.
The poll, conducted by Murray’s new polling firm StimSight Research on behalf of Insider NJ, found that 36% of 7th district voters are voting for or leaning towards Bennett, a former Navy helicopter pilot. Her three foes all trail far behind: 20% for businessman Brian Varela, 19% for ICU physician Tina Shah, and 19% for former Small Business Administration official Michael Roth.
According to the poll, 52% of voters consider defeating Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield) to be one of their top priorities when it comes to the 7th district primary – and 75% of voters said Bennett could win that contest against Kean, a higher proportion than any of her opponents.
“Unseating Tom Kean and standing up to MAGA is ‘Job One’ for a decisive bloc of primary voters in this district,” Murray said in a statement. “Progressive policy issues, which have featured in other Democratic House primaries in the state, are taking a back seat in the Seventh.”
The numbers mostly line up with an internal poll released by Bennett’s campaign earlier this week that showed her with a 36% to 15% lead over Shah. Shah, however, countered with her own internal poll yesterday that gave Bennett a much tighter 26% to 23% edge.
But while all three polls were conducted within the last few weeks, none will be able to account for the sudden arrival of a mysterious and potentially GOP-aligned super PAC, “Real Change PAC,” that began spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on an anti-Bennett ad campaign this week. Shah, too, started airing negative ads against Bennett on Tuesday, which, combined with Real Change PAC’s spending, could drive Bennett’s numbers down ahead of the June 2 primary.
The StimSight Research poll was conducted on behalf of InsiderNJ from May 17-20 with a sample size of 400 likely Democratic primary voters in New Jersey’s 8th congressional district and a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. The poll was not affiliated with any candidate, though Insider NJ publisher John Graham and CEO Michael Graham have both given money to Bennett’s campaign.