New Jersey Republicans are divided over whether President Donald Trump’s dismal poll numbers will drag down GOP candidates in November’s midterm elections, with some lawmakers acknowledging serious political headwinds and others insisting that voters will judge candidates on their own merits.
A Rutgers-Eagleton poll released October 1 found that just 24% of New Jersey residents viewed Trump favorably, compared with 66% who held an unfavorable opinion of the president.
Those numbers are nearly identical to Richard Nixon’s standing in an October 1973 Rutgers-Eagleton poll, just weeks before Republicans suffered the worst electoral drubbing in New Jersey history.
In November 1973, Democrats captured the governorship in a landslide, won overwhelming majorities in both houses of the Legislature, and shattered Republican strongholds across the state as the Watergate scandal engulfed Nixon’s presidency.
More than half a century later, Republicans face another difficult political environment, with Trump deeply unpopular in a state where Democrats made substantial gains in last year’s gubernatorial and legislative elections.
Assemblyman Gerry Scharfenberger (R-Middletown) acknowledged the historical challenges facing the president’s party in midterm elections.
“Certainly, in midterm elections, the party in power does not do well,” Scharfenberger said. “Historically, that’s a concerning part of this.”
“You have to be concerned, but you also have to convey that he is not on the ballot,” he said.
Scharfenberger said Republicans need to make the election about the sharp ideological differences between the two parties rather than allow it to become a referendum on Trump.
“I have never seen such a disparity in the policies between the two parties,” he said.
“You have an entire socialist movement ten to twenty years ago that would be unheard of,” Scharfenberger said.
“You have to make it known this is not just about Donald Trump; this is about two systems of government,” he added.
Assembly Minority Whip Brian Bergen (R-Denville) was more blunt about the potential consequences of Trump’s unpopularity, acknowledging that even strong candidates can be overwhelmed by national political forces.
“A lot of stuff that happens in these elections is external factors,” said Bergen, a potential GOP gubernatorial candidate in 2029. “People have a natural reaction to swing the other way.”
“With his poll numbers being that way and that natural swing, it makes it difficult,” he said. “Anyone who would say that’s not the case is lying to you.”
Assemblywoman Aura Dunn (R-Mendham) pointed to the warning signs from last year’s elections, when Democrats gained five legislative seats, including victories in districts that had not elected Democrats in decades.
“Seats were flipped for the first time since the seventies, since Nixon was president,” Dunn said.
“We all have a responsibility; we all have a part,” she added.
But Assemblyman Erik Peterson (R-Franklin) rejected the notion that Trump’s unpopularity would necessarily hurt Republicans running for other offices.
“I don’t think the president’s polling is going to have any impact on local races,” Peterson said. “I think people vote on the person.”
“I don’t think the national-level politics, especially the president, I think people differentiate,” he said.
Peterson argued that voters would ultimately reward candidates who have built strong records and run effective campaigns, regardless of the national political climate.
“I think every race that’s up, from municipal, county, and federal, is based on the individual that’s actually running,” he said. “If you have run a good campaign and done a good job, people will come out and support you.”
Assemblyman John Azzaritti (R-Saddle River) offered another reason for Republicans not to panic: He doesn’t put much faith in polling.
“Definitely not as reliable as it used to be,” Azzariti said.
“Even when Trump came so close, no one expected it to be that close,” he said.
Azzariti suggested Trump’s weak numbers weren’t necessarily surprising and cautioned against treating them as a reliable forecast for November’s results.
“It’s not unexpected that he might be polling lower than he would otherwise,” he said.
“I would not trust the polls as much as I would have 20 years ago,” Azzariti said. “Repeatedly, they have shown to be not accurate.”