More than eight in ten New Jersey residents (82%) support requiring photo identification to vote, and seven in ten (71%) favor requiring proof of U.S. citizenship to register, even as a majority remain confident that their ballots will be counted accurately in November, according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll released today.
But the poll reveals sharp partisan differences, with Republicans overwhelmingly favoring stricter voting requirements while expressing considerably less confidence than Democrats that elections are being conducted accurately.
Among Republicans, 95% strongly support requiring identification to vote, compared with 64% of independents and 42% of Democrats.
The partisan divide is nearly as pronounced on proof of citizenship, which 85% of Republicans, 54% of independents, and 27% of Democrats strongly support.
Despite widespread support for additional voting requirements, 74% of New Jerseyans are confident that ballots cast in person during early voting or on Election Day will be counted accurately, including 40% who are very confident.
Confidence falls to 59% for mail-in ballots, with 38% doubting whether those votes will be counted accurately.
Two-thirds of residents (66%) are confident that only eligible voters can cast ballots in New Jersey, while 31% are not.
“Majorities would both support these hypothetical voting requirements and are confident about how November’s election will be run, but the intensity behind those two views is not the same,” said Ashley Koning, director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University.
“Strong support clears the halfway mark on both requirements. Not one of the confidence measures gets there, and those who are confident split almost evenly between ‘very’ and ‘somewhat,’” Koning stated. “The support is settled. The confidence is not.”
The findings follow New Jersey officials’ disclosure that approximately 6,600 noncitizens had been registered to vote through the Motor Vehicle Commission.
The survey was conducted before Gov. Mikie Sherrill announced on October 7 that another 1,100 voter registration records required correction or review, along with new audits and procedural changes at the MVC.
Republicans are particularly skeptical about election integrity.
Just 12% of Republicans are very confident that only eligible voters will cast ballots, compared with 59% of Democrats and 28% of independents. More than one-quarter of Republicans (28%) say they are not at all confident.
On mail-in voting, just 7% of Republicans are very confident ballots will be counted accurately, compared with 47% of Democrats and 24% of independents. Three in ten Republicans have no confidence at all that mail ballot counting is accurate.
Even in-person voting produces a significant partisan gap: 85% of Democrats are at least somewhat confident those ballots will be counted accurately, compared with 72% of independents and 60% of Republicans.
“Republicans are the most emphatic about tightening the rules and the least sure the system is working as it stands,” said Koning. “Ninety-five percent strongly support an identification requirement, and 12% are very confident that only eligible voters will cast ballots. Those two numbers are telling the same story from opposite ends.”
The poll also found a strong relationship between doubts about voter eligibility and support for requiring proof of citizenship.
Among residents who are not confident that only eligible voters will cast ballots, 91% support requiring proof of citizenship to register, including 79% who strongly support it.
Among those confident in voter eligibility safeguards, support for the requirement drops to 63%, with 39% strongly supportive.
“The registration problems of the past few months have given residents a concrete reason to wonder about the rolls, and that shows up directly in what they want done,” Koning said. “Residents who doubt the rolls are nearly unanimous about proof of citizenship. Residents who trust them still support it, just far less emphatically.”
The survey found differences across racial and educational groups.
Black residents are less likely than white or Hispanic residents to strongly support either voting requirement, but are more confident in election integrity. Fifty-eight percent of Black residents are very confident that only eligible voters will cast ballots, compared with 33% of white and Hispanic residents.
Strong support for voter identification requirements declines with education, from 69% among residents with a high school education or less to 52% among those with postgraduate education.
The Rutgers-Eagleton Poll surveyed 1,004 New Jersey adults from September 24 to 27, with a margin of error of +/- 4.1%.