OPINION
It’s an eye-opening political reality: in one of the bluest states in the union, where Democrats have controlled nearly every level of government for decades, the most powerful figure in the Republican primary for governor isn’t in Trenton or on the ballot but in the White House. Yes! President Trump’s endorsement will decide who the New Jersey Republicans will nominate for governor this year.
Two leading contenders, three-peat former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli and popular radio host Bill Spadea are battling for the nomination. But more importantly, they’re battling for the approval of one man. Trump’s popularity among Republican voters remains sky-high, even in a blue state like New Jersey, and both campaigns understand cleanly what that means. An endorsement from the former president could dramatically alter the trajectory of the race and tap into the cherished 1.96 million MAGA votes!
What makes this especially notable is how the Governor’s race dynamics have shifted, particularly for Ciattarelli, who spent years and 2 prior election cycles distancing himself from Trump in an effort to appeal to New Jersey moderates and independents. In his 2021 gubernatorial run, Ciattarelli projected a more traditional Republican image that shied away from Trump. But this year, he’s leaned hard into Trump world, attempting to reframe his brand and even spending millions to suggest his opponent isn’t sufficiently aligned with the former president. It’s a sharp pivot and it hasn’t gone unnoticed.
Spadea, by contrast, has built his political persona more directly around the populist energy that reshaped the Republican Party during and after Trump’s presidency. That contrast has become the central tension in the race: authenticity versus reinvention, grassroots appeal versus party leaders, establishment versus populism.
Of course, every campaign is about more than just branding. Both candidates are running on substantive issues: immigration, taxes, parental rights, crime, etc. It’s painfully clear that Trump’s endorsement, or lack thereof, is the wild card. In an expensive, high-stakes primary, all the consultants, mailers, and media buys could be rendered obsolete by a single post on Truth Social.
That’s how influential the 47th President remains. Trump doesn’t need to dominate the news cycle in New Jersey in order to dominate the race. All he needs to do is choose. The question now is whether he will. Trump is reportedly getting conflicting advice: some insiders and high paid consultant urge him to stay out of the New Jersey race altogether, others want him to wait until after the primary. But if he wants to maximize Republican chances in a state where winning statewide campaigns is already an uphill battle, the right move may be to step in before the primary. A Presidential endorsement could consolidate support early and give the GOP a real shot at mounting a credible challenge in the general election against what will undoubtedly be a formidable democratic opponent.
For all the talk of New Jersey being unwinnable for Republicans, the truth is it’s happened twice before as recently as 2010 and 2014 to, of all people, Chris Christie, an outspoken critic of Trump. And in this perhaps lopsided and volatile political climate, it could happen again. But it may take more than just a boatload of money and a good campaign team. It will require the kingmaker’s blessing.
Mr. President, please make a choice now.
George Nader, an engineer from Morris Township, is active in New Jersey Republican politics.