DALLAS — New Jersey Republicans fared much better than expected in 2024 as Donald Trump received the largest percentage for a GOP presidential nominee in two decades.
But two years later, Trump’s job approval rating in the state sat at 38% and 58% in a Rutgers-Eagleton and SSRS Garden State Panel survey rated the state’s economy as “bad’ or “very bad.”
In addition, midterm elections traditionally are considered a referendum on the president and the party in power losing seats in Congress. Polls show the current one so unpopular that newly energized Democrats are favored to take back the U.S. House, which would give them the power to investigate the president and block his legislative initiatives.
New Jersey’s only endangered House member, Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield) is given no better than a 50-50 chance to retain his seat by the Cook Political Report. Inside Elections gives his Democratic opponent, former Navy pilot Rebecca Bennett, a slight edge.
They also have a shot to win a majority in the U.S. Senate as well, preventing him from filling judgeships and adding a layer of scrutiny to his other nominations that the GOP-controlled chamber rarely provided.
Hence the Republicans’ effort to flip the script, holding their first-ever midterm convention, which ended Thursday.
“If things aren’t working, you need to change them,” said state Assemblyman Alex Sauickie (R-Cream Ridge). “The idea that they put this effort into something as big as this and as important and as visible, I think is a really good sign that the party’s thinking about, ‘Hey, how do we get our voters to come out and how do we reach our voters?’ They’re doing something that’s never been done before.”
Over two days, speaker after speaker highlighted Trump’s giant tax and spending law, which restored part of the federal deduction for state and local taxes; reduced taxes on tips, overtime pay and Social Security; and permanently extended the tax cuts enacted in 2017.
They talked about Trump’s success in curbing the flow of immigrants across the southern border and in lowering the prices of some prescription drugs.
New Jersey sent around 40 delegates here. They paid to attend, helping the party raise money for the midterms while also ginning up enthusiasm for the midterms.
“Everybody here is going to take the energy back to their districts and just bring that excitement and enthusiasm, and it’s so important for Republicans to be telling the story, making it clear to people the successes and why we need to keep Republicans in control in Washington,” state GOP chair Christine Giordano Hanlon said.
At the same time, though Republicans sought to rename their bill the Working Families Tax Cuts, the measure gave 72% of the benefits to the richest 20% of Americans, according to the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, a progressive research group.
Cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program shrunk the number of New Jerseyans receiving what used to be known as food stamps by 35,000, and enrollment in Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program dropped by 60,000, according to FWD.us, a pro-immigration advocacy group.
And Trump, who campaigned against “forever wars,” launched one against Iran, which has driven up gas prices and fueled inflation.
The annual inflation rate was 3.4% for the 12 months ending in July, up from 2.9% in July 2024 under President Joe Biden. The average price of a gallon of regular gas in New Jersey stood at $4.37, up from $3.17 a year ago, according to AAA.
Biden was blamed for inflation and the high cost of groceries when he ran for re-election. Now it’s Trump’s turn.
“This is not ‘24,” Democratic consultant Modia (Mo) Butler said. “The issues that he seems to be focused on are deeply unpopular issues, and he’s tethered his party to his unpopularity and to the unpopularity of the issues that he is pushing and promoting, It’s a recipe for disaster.”
But it’s not 2025 either, when Democratic Gov. Mikie Sherrill romped to victory over defeated Republican Jack Ciattarelli, who had lost by just three points four years earlier to Gov. Phil Murphy.
“It is a federal election cycle, so I hope that it’s more like 2024, because the voters who are tuned in to the national issues are going to come out to vote, and they understand how the policies of Washington are helping us,” Hanlon said. “So we think that they’re going to come out and really vote to continue the success that’s going on on the national level.”
Besides taking this week off, House Republicans excised two other weeks of legislative days from the calendar, meaning this coming week is their last time to enact legislation until after the Nov. 3 midterms.
That means no action to address rising gasoline prices, electricity costs, increased health premiums and higher food bills, and no debate on Trump’s Iran war, which he launched without congressional approval.
“They should have not taken the week off and come back here — well, I’ll say to Washington — and actually try to accomplish something to address affordability,” said Rep. Frank Pallone Jr. (D-Long Branch).
“Why are they in Dallas? Just so they can say that Democrats are no good,” he said. “This becomes a distraction and a party rather than trying to accomplish something.”
The voters Trump was very good at turning out in 2024 weren’t there in 2025, when he wasn’t on the ballot. The Republicans need them in 2026.
“Let’s be honest, that’s what it’s intended for,” Sauickie said about the midterm convention. “It’s just so critical that people come out and vote so yeah, I do think it’ll help.”
But Trump won’t be on the ballot in 2026 either , though he repeatedly told the convention delegates to make believe he was.
“Whenever Trump is at the top of the ticket, the electorate that comes out to vote looks a little different, behaves a little different, and you’ve heard Trump say. ‘Please come out to vote like I’m at the top of the ticket,’” Butler said. “Well, not only will Trump not be at the top of the ticket, but let’s say he was at the top of the ticket, and he is running on how he’s presided over the country over the last two years. I suspect that you would not get the mix of turnout that he received and level of support that he received.”
Juned Qazi, deputy mayor of Marlboro Township and chair of the state Republicans’ South Asian Caucus, said the enthusiasm that poured out of the Dallas convention could get people to the polls.
“This is what the convention is,” he said. “People get the energy and go back to their states and spread that energy to the voters, and this is what we’re going to do.”