Editor’s note: The New Jersey Globe is currently considering its policy on the publication of internal polls.
An internal poll for Republican gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli showed him within the margin of error of Democratic nominee Rep. Mikie Sherrill.
The poll had Sherrill leading Ciattarelli 45%-42% in the days following the primary election, putting the Republican within the 4% margin of error. Ciattarelli is seeking to become the first Republican governor since Chris Christie, while Sherrill is looking to become the first Democrat to win a third consecutive gubernatorial term for the first time since the 1960s.
The internal poll comes with the typical caveats, including the fact that campaigns typically release the polls and memos in an effort to make their candidates look strong.
The polling memo argues Ciattarelli has an advantage among voters who want change, and follows Ciattarelli’s lead in calling the congresswoman “Phil Murphy 2.0 on steroids.”
“Make no mistake that this is a ‘CHANGE’ election and Ciattarelli is the CHANGE candidate,” the polling memo said. “A majority of New Jersey voters (54%) believe that the state is heading in the wrong direction, while only 33% believe things in New Jersey are going in the right direction. Notably, Ciattarelli leads Sherrill by a whopping 72%-14% margin among those wrong track voters, and an even stronger 87%-6% among voters who want a governor who will ‘shake up Trenton.’”
A pre-primary poll from a pro-Democratic group, the first of many expected for what is expected to be the country’s premier election of 2025, showed Sherrill up 51%-38%.
The internal also tested messaging that could be used against the congresswoman, specifically attacks regarding the congresswoman’s stock-trading history (a Sherrill spokesperson has previously noted that Sherrill sold all of her individual stocks in 2020 and argued she has gone “above and beyond” to avoid any hints of impropriety).
National Research, a New Jersey-based firm founded by Adam Geller, conducted the poll. National Research polled on behalf of President Trump’s campaign or Trump-backing super PACs for each of the last three presidential elections. He also served as a pollster for Gov. Chris Christie’s 2009 and 2013 campaigns.
National Research surveyed 600 likely voters from June 11-12, for a margin of error of +/- 4%.