New Jerseyans aren’t always civil, but it’s still possible for a liberal Democrat and a conservative Republican to have a rational and pleasant conversation about politics in the state. Dan Bryan is a former senior advisor to Gov. Phil Murphy and is now the owner of his own public affairs firm, and Alex Wilkes is an attorney and former executive director of America Rising PAC who advises Republican candidates in New Jersey and across the nation, including the New Jersey GOP. Dan and Alex are both experienced strategists who are currently in the room where high-level decisions are made. They get together weekly with New Jersey Globe editor David Wildstein to discuss politics and issues.
One day before Election Day — or maybe we should call it the final day of voting in New Jersey, what are your thoughts about the Democratic and Republican primaries for Governor and other contests, about turnout, and if you want, predictions about what we’re looking at tomorrow evening?
Dan Bryan: When the line was abolished last year, we were promised competitive primaries. And my goodness, did we get one.
A quick word about the Republican primary, the undercard in tomorrow’s election: I’m very interested to see what Jack Ciattarelli’s margin will be. If he can beat Bill Spadea by 30-40+ points, it’ll be an impressive show of force going into the general election. But if he somehow only wins by 10-20, even with Donald Trump’s endorsement, there are going to be plenty of questions about his viability in November.
Anyone who works in New Jersey politics should enjoy these next 36 hours. An election like this, with six real, viable candidates for the Democratic nomination for Governor, comes around once in a generation. This primary will produce the most battle-tested nominee for Governor our state has ever had, and gives the Democrats a serious advantage heading into November.
Though I’m out of the predictions business, here are just a few of the things I’ll be watching on Tuesday night:
– County Clerks have been counting vote-by-mail ballots, and will have results to release within minutes of polls closing at 8pm. Does anyone build up enough of a margin on VBM to make it an early night?
– The Jewish community has made their voices heard in Democratic primaries in recent years. I’ll be watching their impact around the state, but especially in the heavily-contested LD37.
– My ex-adopted hometown is hosting the most competitive legislative primary in the state, in LD32. You could talk me into any combination of the three tickets as the winner.
– And just to the north, I’ll be watching LD33 and the margin Brian Stack produces for his legislative team.
– I’ll keep an eye on Somerset County, where an unusual decision led to an unusual ballot design. Mayor Fulop couldn’t have designed it better if he tried, but will it translate to votes?
– I’ll be watching the progressive train towns like Montclair, Maplewood, South Orange, and Westfield. Who wins them, and do they beat the competition by enough to make an impact?
Tomorrow at 8pm, we all get to stop speculating and start crunching the data. Can’t wait.
Alex Wilkes: On the Republican side, I believe Jack will win with a healthy enough margin to give him big momentum going into the general election—and that unity will stand in stark contrast to a Democratic field that has torn each other to shreds over the past few months. Jack built a campaign to win: fundraising, paid and unpaid media, and a field operation that worked as relentlessly as its candidate. I’ve been on this soap box forever, but I think it is worth repeating: campaigns require structure and discipline. If you’re feeling disappointed on Election Day, hold your candidate and future candidates to account by demanding to see the path to victory (I do mean it sincerely).
On the Democratic side, I was reflecting about how much of a disservice the line and guys like Phil Murphy and Jon Corzine have done for their primary process. For Republicans, in most places, the line was weak enough to bust through with money and diligence, but for the Democrats, it was played out to an unbelievably corrupt end. When you paired that with virtually unlimited personal wealth from your Governor, it was almost impossible to score an upset in the process. It’s no wonder that the Democrats are in a massive meltdown mode over primary challenges now. Competition is so foreign to most of their candidates that it probably predates their political lifetimes. It was rough to go through at the time, but ultimately, coming of age during the tumult of the 2010s really did help in the long-term.
If it’s Sherrill, I think you probably see some begrudging pledges of loyalty a lot faster than for some of the other candidates. I also think it will be interesting to see how other candidates may have joined together to defeat her if the fractured vote totals show a very close finish. If it’s Fulop, woo boy, you’ll be asking a lot of influential Democrats with massive egos to eat it in the name of party unity. Some of them might even conclude that making deals with a Republican governor who wants to get things done might be easier than contending with a spiteful guy you absolutely loathe. It wouldn’t be the first time!
Let the games begin!