The U.S. Census Bureau announced on Monday that the nation’s population was 331,449,281 and New Jersey’s population was 9,288,994.
Here are the answers to 10 questions the New Jersey Globe fielded about the impact of the announcement on congressional and legislative redistricting:
1. What did Monday’s U.S. Census announcement mean for New Jersey?
The number of congressional seats will remain at it’s current number, 12, for another ten years.
2. What does that mean for congressional redistricting?
The formula for drawing new House districts is simple: X/12
What we learned on Monday is that X = 9,288,994. That means that a House district should have 774,083 people, +/- 1. Because municipalities can be split without regard to anything other than to equalize population, the New Jersey Redistricting Commission that draws the congressional map aims to create twelve districts of equal size.
New Jersey’s population in 2010 was 8,791,893, so the size of House districts was 732,658, +/- 1.
3. Does that mean every congressional district needs to pick up 41,425 people?
Yes, but that doesn’t necessarily mean districts need to pick up new towns. Some districts will have more people in them than they did ten years ago and will need to shed population.
4. Is there a formula for legislative redistricting?
Since New Jersey has 40 legislative districts, it’s X/40
5.Do legislative districts need to be equal in size?
No. The State Constitution allows for a +/- 10% deviation, but the Legislative Apportionment Commission tries to keep the deviation at +/- 5%. The more equal in size the districts are, the more attractive they may look to a tiebreaker.
While the ideally-sized legislative district is 232,225 – 12,438 that ten years ago – the ideal range of a 5% deviation is between 220,614 to 243,836. The State Constitution would allow the range to be 209,002 to 255,447.
6. Is it OK to have districts that aren’t geographically contiguous as long as it’s the same county?
No.
7. When will the new districts take effect?
2022 for congressional, 2023 for legislative.
8. Is New Jersey ready to start drawing districts now?
Not even close. It’s like you get a new car, but the gasoline won’t arrive for a few months. You can sit in it and imagine how it will run, but you can’t drive it yet. All we know right now is how many total people live in New Jersey; we don’t know how the populations of each municipality, and redistricting can’t begin without it.
U.S Census Bureau officials said they expect states to receive municipal population data by August 16 and the full redistricting toolkit – which means population by census block – by September 30.
9. Were the 2019 U.S. Census estimates wrong?
Apparently. The projection was 8,882,190. That doesn’t mean it was New Jersey’s population in 2019, but rather the U.S. Census Bureau’s estimate of what it would be after the 2020 Census. The actual number turned out to be 4.58% higher than the projection.
The 2010 U.S. Census turned out to be less than 1% off of its 2009 estimate. In 2000, it was 3.33% higher than the 1999 estimate. In 1990, the U.S. Census came within one-half of one percent of its 1989 estimate.
10. New Jersey close to losing a congressional seat?
No. Indeed, the state was closer to gaining one that losing one. After the six states that picked up at least one House seat, New Jersey ranked 10th out of 44.