DISCLAIMER: Polls can be a helpful tool for understanding elections, but they are an imperfect one, as demonstrated by New Jersey’s three most recent statewide general elections, all of which had results substantially different from what nearly every pollster had projected. Poll results should be treated as data points and guideposts in complex elections, not as ironclad predictions of what will happen; the same is doubly true for internal polls, which are conducted with a specific agenda and candidate in mind. (This disclaimer will appear on all future New Jersey Globe polling stories.)
A few days before primary day in New Jersey’s 7th congressional district, a group aligned with Democratic candidate Tina Shah released a poll showing Shah with a slight lead over Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield), who will be a top Democratic target this November. The same pollster also asked respondents about another Democratic challenger, Rebecca Bennett, but those numbers were not initially released.
But now that the primary is over and Bennett is the nominee, the fuller poll is coming out, and it still paints a rosy picture for Democrats.
According to the poll, conducted by the firm Z to A Research from May 24 through May 26, Bennett leads Kean in a head-to-head matchup by a 47% to 43% margin. (That’s essentially the same as the 46%-43% lead Shah posted in the previously released numbers – hence why a group arguing that Shah was the most electable Democrat decided to keep the Bennett numbers to themselves until the primary.)
The poll also found that Kean is underwater among his own constituents, with a favorability ratio of 32%-50%, and President Donald Trump – who narrowly won the district in 2024 – is similarly unpopular at 41%-56%. Both of those statistics were also part of the initial Shah-focused release from last week.
“Voters in NJ-7 have already had enough of Tom Kean Jr. – and they haven’t even gotten to know Bennett yet,” said 314 Action executive director Erik Polyak, whose scientists-focused group commissioned the poll.
314 Action is a Democratic-aligned group, so it of course makes sense that any polling numbers they release would redound to the benefit of Democrats. In order to get a clearer picture of the 7th district race, there will need to be more polling, especially from independent pollsters – though that may be a tall ask in an era where high-quality polls are becoming more and more rare.
But it’s still one early data point indicating that 7th district Democrats, who were substantially trailing Kean in private polling around this time two years ago, are starting off in good shape this cycle. Bennett was added this morning to the national “Red to Blue” list for top-tier House challengers, while Kean’s lengthy and mostly unexplained medical absence had hindered his ability to kick his own campaign for a third term into gear.
The Z to A Research poll was conducted on behalf of 314 Action Fund from May 24-26 with a sample size of 430 likely general election voters in New Jersey’s 7th congressional district and a margin of error of +/- 4.7%.