Assemblywoman Lisa Swain (D-Fair Lawn) and Assemblyman Chris Tully (D-Bergenfield) have won re-election, the New Jersey Globe projects, once again thoroughly dashing GOP hopes of turning Bergen County’s 38th legislative district red.
As of 10:07 p.m. and with most of the vote reported, Swain has 29.2% and Tully has 28.6%; their Republican opponents, Paramus Councilman Rob Kaiser and Glen Rock businessman Barry Wilkes, have 21.5% and 20.7%, respectively.
The 38th district has been on Republicans’ target list for decades, and it would likely be a key stepping stone if the party were ever to reclaim the majority in the Senate or Assembly. The battle-tested team of Swain, Tully, and State Sen. Joseph Lagana (D-Paramus), however, has a hold on the district that has proven tough to break.
After a closer-than-expected 2021 result, Republicans became seriously interested in finally flipping the district in 2023, and they seemed to be within striking distance for much of the cycle. But beset by recruitment challenges and facing a yawning financial disparity, they didn’t even come close; Swain and Tully beat Wilkes and running mate Gail Horton by a combined 56%-44% margin.
This year, Bergen County Republicans were able to address some of their problems. Wilkes decided to run again, and Kaiser joined him after previously rebuffing entreaties to run against Lagana in 2023; the Republican slate was also outspent by their Democratic opponents, but they were able to raise far more money than most other GOP challengers around the state.
Republicans were also encouraged by last year’s presidential results, when Donald Trump carried the 38th district, albeit by the narrowest of margins: just 65 votes out of more than 110,000 cast.
In the end, though, Wilkes and Kaiser were unable to come anywhere close to matching that result; Swain and Tully have proven themselves to
Swain and Tully both arrived in Trenton at the same time, winning a 2018 special convention to succeed Lagana, who moved up to the Senate, and Assemblyman Tim Eustace (D-Maywood), who resigned after failing to snag the Senate seat. Swain has since become the chairwoman of the Assembly Appropriations Committee, a wide-ranging panel that weighs in on practically every important piece of legislation the legislature considers.
Both sides hosted contested primaries this year as well. Swain and Tully defeated Glen Rock school board president Damali Robinson and attorney Donald Bonomo, who ran alongside gubernatorial candidate Steve Fulop, by a large margin, while Kaiser and Wilkes easily beat 2021 nominee Jerry Walker.