With Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown)’s announcement this afternoon that he’s running for the U.S. Senate against indicted Senator Bob Menendez, there is now set to be an open-seat race for Kim’s 3rd congressional district seat.
The 3rd district is primarily located in Burlington County, a large suburban county in the suburbs of Philadelphia; it also includes Mercer County towns surrounding Trenton and some scattered towns in Monmouth County. It backed Joe Biden by 14 points in 2020, likely meaning that the Democratic primary will determine who next represents it in Congress.
At the top of the shortlist are two state legislators from the Burlington-based 7th legislative district: Senate Majority Whip Troy Singleton (D-Delran) and Assembly Majority Whip Carol Murphy (D-Mount Laurel). Murphy is essentially guaranteed to run, the New Jersey Globe has confirmed.
Both are well-respected in the statehouse, and would make history in different ways: Singleton as South Jersey’s first Black member of Congress, Murphy as the region’s first congresswoman. Murphy also has close ties to the South Jersey Democratic machine, which will likely play a big role in deciding who goes to Congress from the 3rd district.
Other potential options hail from outside Burlington County, which makes up around 68% of the district’s Democratic primary vote. Assemblyman Wayne DeAngelo (D-Hamilton), the president of the Mercer/Burlington Building Trades; Mercer County Democratic chair Janice Mironov, who is also the mayor of East Windsor; Mercer County Clerk Paula Sollami Covello; Hamilton Township Mayor Jeff Martin; and Marlboro Mayor Jon Hornik could all take a look at the race.
One stumbling block for every prospective candidate but Sollami Covello, though, is that all of them are on the ballot this November. Not all of their races are competitive, but it still means the field won’t really take shape for another month and a half at least.
Of course, there could also be a candidate who comes out of nowhere to run; that’s exactly what Kim, previously a State Department official, did in 2018. But that was in a redder version of the 3rd district that few Democrats believed they could win. Now that the district is more Democratic under the state’s new congressional map, there will certainly be more involvement from party leaders in finding an acceptable nominee.
On the Republican side, there are a number of potentially compelling candidates, including 2022 nominee Bob Healey, Burlington County GOP chairman Sean Earlen, and Assemblymembers Brandon Umba (R-Hainesport) and Vicky Flynn (R-Holmdel).
The problem for the GOP, though, is that it will be hard to get any of their top recruits to run in a race that most probably won’t see as winnable. In 2022, Kim beat Healey, a touted challenger, by a 54%-42% margin, and even in an open-seat race it’s hard to imagine any Republican doing much better under presidential-year turnout next year.
Finally, there’s a distinct possibility that the 3rd district won’t be open next year at all. Kim is running one-on-one right now against an indicted senator, but if Menendez retires or resigns, that could completely upend the Senate race.
In the event that other candidates enter the race and box Kim out of party support, or Menendez resigns and Gov. Phil Murphy (no relation to the assemblywoman) appoints someone other than Kim to his seat, Kim may drop right back down to the House. All candidates looking at the race have to look at it as a golden opportunity – but perhaps a fleeting one.