Weak fundraising numbers during his first nine months in Congress and the salacious details of his father’s criminal indictment have left freshman Rep. Robert J. Menendez (D-Jersey City) vulnerable as he prepares for a potential primary fight to keep his seat.
He raised a lethargic $114,108 in the first two quarters of 2023 and $255,547 in the third quarter, giving him a prosaic $433,244 cash-on-hand just eight months before next year’s Democratic primary.
One of the prevailing criticisms of the 38-year-old lawyer was that he was essentially anointed to the 8th district congressional seat after veteran Democrat Albio Sires announced his retirement the week before Christmas 2021.
With the help of his father, it took Menendez just five days to secure endorsements from Gov. Phil Murphy, U.S. Senator Cory Booker, Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop, Union City Mayor/State Sen. Brian Stack, North Bergen/Sen. Nicholas Sacco, and other top Democrats. The field was cleared for him before even announcing his candidacy.
But in the weeks following U.S. Senator Bob Menendez’s indictment on federal bribery and conspiracy charges – the Justice Department added a new charge this week: acting as an unregistered agent for the Egyptian government – the Menendez name could now be a massive liability for his son.
A poll released six days after the indictment put Senator Menendez’s favorables at just 8% statewide.
Many Democrats who boosted Rob Menendez’s congressional campaign were among the first to call for his father’s resignation last month. Fulop has been especially critical of Bob Menendez, calling for his expulsion from the Senate on Friday.
Publicly, several key Democrats are sticking with Menendez for now; several use the “sins of the father” line to defend him. But privately, many of Senator Menendez’s longtime friends and political allies express shock and disappointment over the stunning allegations made in the indictment and acknowledge that Congressman Menendez could be a casualty.
Menendez’s sluggish fundraising only strengthens speculation that he could face a tough race.
“Robert has known that his father was under investigation for the entirety of his time in Congress, and he had to know an indictment was a possible outcome,” said one Democratic officeholder who asked not to be identified. “The fact that he didn’t protect himself by amassing a warchest is surprising to me.”
Added the officeholder, “He’s going to have to stand up on his own two feet and win this one on his own. The seat is not going to be gifted to him again, so he needs to work it.”
Menendez has had an active first ten months in office, including about a half-dozen foreign trips, but has not put in the “call time” hours that other potentially vulnerable Members of Congress do to protect their seats. As a result, he’s potentially squandered half his fundraising time before he faces voters again.
His district, which includes most of Hudson County, Elizabeth, and parts of Newark, is safe Democratic – Joe Biden took 72% there in 2020 – so a victory in the June 2024 primary is tantamount to an election. That means three fundraising quarters remain before the outcome of the 8th district contest is decided.
In the days following the senator’s announcement, Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla began making moves to challenge Menendez in the primary. Others could follow.
A primary for Bob Menendez’s U.S. Senate seat could further complicate the race. He still hasn’t formally dismissed a bid for a fourth term, which could force Rob Menendez to choose between running with his father and running with the organization-backed candidate. And a Tammy Murphy vs. Andy Kim Senate primary offers new bracketing options.
Micah Rasmussen, the director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University, suggested that in a presidential year, Menendez might face a tougher electorate with a higher turnout and less inclined to vote for the organization line candidates.
“Voters who mainly participate in presidential years are more concerned with ideology and national politics than local races. That’s one of the reasons turnout is lower for local elections— there’s a wide swath of the electorate that’s simply less interested and unconnected with state and local party organizations,” Rasmussen said, “So when these more casual, unconnected voters do show up in presidential years, there’s at least the potential for results that are less connected to what the organizations want.”
While less competitive races were on the ballot, over one million Democrats voted statewide in the 2020 primary; two years later, the Democratic turnout was 430,000.
“If there was ever a year in which county organizations should consider the conditions that could lend themselves to a strong challenge to the vulnerabilities of the line, 2024 may be it,” said Rasmussen.