At this time next year, all eyes will be on New Jersey’s 7th congressional district. Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield) will be running for a second term in the state’s only truly competitive seat, and Democrats will be dead-set on replacing him with a rising star by the name of… TBD.
That’s the part Democrats still need to figure out.
Right now, they’ve got three options to choose from. First, there’s Sue Altman, the former director of the New Jersey Working Families Party and a longtime leader in state progressive circles. Altman’s campaign has lots of connections, lots of energy, and a solid financial head start, though her anti-establishment credentials and past feuds with Democratic party leaders might be an obstacle.
Joining the race last month was former U.S. State Department official Jason Blazakis, who grew up in the district and recently moved back after decades in the national security field. Blazakis has a relative lack of New Jersey political ties, but his high-powered campaign team and strong resume should be enough to overcome that.
Finally, there’s Roselle Park Mayor Joe Signorello, who probably starts the race in 3rd place but has lots of room to grow. He’s the only candidate so far to hail from vote-rich Union County, and if he picks up steam there, the dominoes elsewhere could fall in his favor.
More candidates could soon join as well. Former State Sen. Ray Lesniak (D-Elizabeth) and Summit Council President Greg Vartan have both publicly said they’re interested in the race; still others are waiting in the wings and could jump in if the right opportunity presents itself.
In a state not known for hosting many competitive Democratic primaries, the race is shaping up to be a fascinating one. All three declared candidates have compelling arguments for why they should be the one to face Kean – and how they can win the Democratic primary to get there.
The next few months will show who’s really got what it takes to go all the way.
Step 1: Raising money
Long before the 7th district’s Democratic candidates face any voters, or even any county conventions, they’ll have to prove their mettle in fundraising. Good fundraising is critical both for running an effective primary campaign and for showing that they can gather the resources needed to take on Kean, a consistently strong fundraiser who has $1.5 million in the bank.
“They’ve all got to get out there and define themselves,” said Micah Rasmussen, the director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University. “The earlier that they do define themselves, the better off they’re going to be, and the harder it’s going to be [for others] to define them.”
Because both Blazakis and Signorello got into the race after the last fundraising quarter ended, it’s impossible to get an accurate read yet on how the three candidates’ fundraising stacks up.
For now, that means it’s Altman who has the financial edge. During her first month in the race, she raised $218,000, and had $194,000 on-hand at the end of the 2nd quarter.
(A number of her donors stand out: State Sen./former Gov. Richard Codey, former U.S. Senator Bob Torricelli, former NJ-2 candidate Amy Kennedy, a super PAC associated with Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop, State Sens. Andrew Zwicker and Vin Gopal – though Gopal’s donation was refunded due to a technicality – and local officeholders and groups like former Flemington Mayor Betsy Driver and the Fanwood Democratic Municipal Committee. None of those donations are endorsements, per se, but they’re a sign that at least some parts of the state Democratic establishment are comfortable with Altman’s candidacy.)
Signorello, who spent much of the year running a longshot primary campaign against U.S. Senator Bob Menendez, raised $103,000 and had $86,000 left after Q2, all of which he can transfer to his House campaign. But those numbers shouldn’t necessarily be taken as an indication of his future fundraising abilities, since the prospective donor list for a progressive primary challenge is very different from the one for a swing-district open-seat race.
And Blazakis, who has never run for office or posted a single fundraising quarter before, is the true wild card. Several of his staffers and advisors have experience fundraising huge amounts on previous campaigns, which sets the expectations high.
The real test for all three candidates will come on or before October 15, when reports for the third quarter (which ends on September 30) are due. If any have a particularly good quarter, that could establish them as the race’s frontrunner; if any have a particularly bad one, that might be the first step on the road to dropping out.
And if all three underperform expectations, that leaves the door open for more challengers to get in the race and scoop up the energy that the existing candidates aren’t successfully harnessing. But the longer those prospective additional candidates wait, the more catching up they’ll have to do.
“Every month that goes by, they’re raising and you’re not,” Rasmussen said. “The headstart becomes more formidable.”
Step 2: Getting key endorsements
Just downstream of fundraising are endorsements, which solidify a candidate as someone to take seriously. But in the 7th district race, it looks like those will be in short supply for the foreseeable future.
That’s because, for most New Jersey Democrats, there’s not much to gain – and a lot to lose – by stepping into the race when it remains up in the air. Why stick your neck out for a campaign that’s far from assured of victory, when you could simply let the process play out and endorse the ultimate nominee instead?
Altman does have a few notable endorsers already. Two top labor leaders, Franceline Ehret of the Communication Workers of America and Kevin Brown of 32BJ SEIU, are backing Altman, as is former U.S. Treasury Department Undersecretary Jim Johnson, who had been considered a potential candidate for the 7th district.
There are also several national groups that could weigh in for Altman. Brady PAC, a national gun control organization, has donated several thousand dollars to her campaign, though it’s not exactly clear if that signifies an endorsement; Emily’s List – a major national group that supports female Democratic candidates – might also enter the fray if Altman remains the only woman in the race.
Blazakis, with his background in national security, could benefit from a different orbit of national backers. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee has lately taken to spending millions of dollars in Democratic primaries, and Blazakis, a moderate Democrat, fits the group’s endorsee profile well, though that remains pure speculation for now.
The biggest potential endorser of all, though, is probably former Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-Ringoes), whom Kean beat in 2022 – and he’s expected to stay out of the race until a likely nominee emerges. If someone like Malinowski does make an endorsement, that means the race is winnowing down significantly.
There definitely is a possible universe this fall in which one candidate breaks away from the pack this fall, starts getting big endorsements, and shuts down the field. That’s far from the likeliest outcome, though, and more likely than not, the race will continue through convention season next February and March.
Step 3: Winning county lines
In New Jersey politics, money and endorsements can only go so far without the county organizational line: that uniquely New Jersey creation that gives county parties’ preferred candidates a preferential spot on primary ballots.
The 7th district includes parts of six different counties, meaning that Democratic candidates will have to try and pass muster with six different county parties at their annual county conventions. Those six counties – Union, Somerset, Hunterdon, Morris, Warren, and Sussex – are all very different from one another, presenting six distinct tests for any prospective candidate.
Altman’s strengths lie in the western, more rural part of the district, where county Democratic organizations are more progressive-leaning. Blazakis’ moderate, electability-focused message, on the other hand, is a better fit for Union and Somerset Counties, while Signorello is Union County’s one native son in the race.
It’s generally taken for granted that Democrats in Sussex County – which, despite being a solidly red county, has perhaps the most progressive county Democratic organization in the state – are deep in Altman’s corner.
The influence of their endorsement, though, is relatively minimal, given that Sussex is home to only around 5% of the 7th district’s Democratic voters. The county is also one of two in the state that doesn’t have an organizational line, meaning that all candidates who make it to the primary will compete on an open ballot regardless of the party endorsement.
Each of the three could favor Altman; Warren in particular has a reputation for having a very progressive local Democratic apparatus. Sussex and Warren were the only two counties in the state to back Bernie Sanders over Hillary Clinton in 2016, and Sanders only lost Hunterdon by a few hundred votes.
Still, Altman can’t take anything for granted in any of the three. Hunterdon is home to both Altman and Blazakis – they both live in Lambertville – and Warren is where Blazakis grew up. As for Morris, which has grown bluer in recent years, some county committeemembers may be less inclined to back an unabashed progressive like Altman.
Like in previous years, Hunterdon Democrats are also set to hold the earliest convention of the six counties, meeting to award their line in early February 2024. That could give the county an outsized role in the 7th district race, since whoever wins the organization line there will have the momentum going into the next county convention.
In 2018, Malinowski’s victory at the Hunterdon convention set the tone for the rest of the campaign in his favor. And in 2020, the county backed Elizabeth Warren for president, an auspicious sign for Altman, whose Working Families Party supported Warren in that race.
Combined, Hunterdon, Morris, Warren, and Sussex make up around 48% of the district’s Democratic primary voters (based on turnout in the uncompetitive 2022 primary). The other 52% comes from Somerset and Union Counties, which have a reputation for being more establishment-oriented.
Union in particular has a very powerful Democratic organization run by State Senate President Nick Scutari (D-Linden), who lives just outside the 7th district. Home to 33% of the district’s Democratic voters, whichever candidate can woo Scutari and other county Democratic leaders will put themselves in contention for a county line that carries a lot of votes.
Blazakis and Signorello start with the advantage there, though for different reasons: Blazakis has a Malinowski-esque profile that likely appeals to Union Democrats, while Signorello is a Union County man himself and has spent years there building political connections as a mayor and 2021 state legislative candidate. (It is worth noting that the town he leads and lives in, Roselle Park, isn’t actually in the 7th district.)
Somerset, a formerly purple county that has rocketed left in recent years, doesn’t have quite the same type of powerful Democratic machine as Union, but it too is considered potentially favorable terrain for Blazakis. The county commands another 20% or so of Democratic primary voters, approximately tying it with Hunterdon.
The different politics within each county, and the many possible permutations of county convention results, make it hard to game out exactly what might happen.
In one version of events, Altman breaks away from the pack and racks up a big early win in Hunterdon, making leaders in Union and Somerset decide it wouldn’t be prudent to try and take her down. Even if Altman isn’t the most popular figure with the Democratic establishment, a congressional nomination may be a small price to pay for party unity.
“Do they want to take her on if she’s pulling away?” Rasmussen said of the potential calculations by anti-Altman forces. “Do they want to spend the money and the resources to challenge her, or will they ultimately say, ‘You can have it.’ That’s the formula for her: be formidable enough that they decide it’s not something they want to take on.”
The opposite could also happen. If Signorello or Blazakis has a big fundraising edge and a clear path to the organizational line in the district’s eastern counties, Altman-friendly counties may prefer to acquiesce rather than go down with the ship.
And then there’s the possibility of a genuine split result, in which the different counties stick to their guns and back two or even three different candidates. What happens then?
Step 4: Who knows?
The last time the 7th district hosted a competitive Democratic contest, in 2018, Step 3 was as far as it went.
Throughout convention season that year, Malinowski and his main opponent, Linda Weber, had been running neck-and-neck. Malinowski had the line in Hunterdon, Warren, and Morris, while Weber had it in Somerset and Essex, which was a small part of the district at the time. The race for the nomination all came down to the convention in Union.
In fact, it all came down to just one vote in Union. Because Union County only allows party municipal chairs to vote at conventions, it was purely up to Garwood Democratic chairman Hugh Sinclair to break what was otherwise a 6-6 tie between Malinowski and Weber.
Sinclair went with Malinowski, and the race developed quickly from there. Weber ended her campaign two days after losing the Union line, and the counties that had endorsed her shifted to Malinowski with little fuss. After defeating a pair of lesser-known candidates in the Democratic primary, Malinowski went on to unseat Rep. Leonard Lance (R-Clinton) for the first of his two terms in Congress.
This year, though, county convention season may not be the end of the 7th district campaign. Altman has spent much of her career blasting the county line system as unfair and undemocratic, and while she’s going to participate in the convention process next year, she’ll probably see her campaign through to the primary unless there’s truly no chance of victory.
Thanks to Altman’s longstanding connections in progressive circles, such a campaign wouldn’t be as hopeless as most off-the-line campaigns are in New Jersey. If she can combine getting the line in the western counties like Hunterdon with strong off-the-line results in Union County suburbs like Westfield and Summit, that could very well be a winning formula.
Blazakis and Signorello, and any other potential Democrat who might enter the race, would be less likely to go against the county organizations if the lines don’t go their way, but it’s not impossible.
Any discussion of a contested primary, though, is getting about five steps ahead of where the race actually is today. There are still many months of fundraising, networking, and schmoozing with every county committeemember under the sun still to come.
Unlike most New Jersey primaries, this one will have the rest of the country watching it. The race against Tom Kean Jr. is a hugely high-stakes one – one that in certain scenarios could even tip the balance of the House towards one party or the other.
“Kean is making the best use of his time,” Rasmussen said. “It requires the ultimate primary winner to catch up. That’s always going to be a challenge… To be successful, the challenger is going to need to overcome all of the advantages that Kean has been able to build up.”
That puts a lot of pressure on Altman, Blazakis, and Signorello, as well as on the local Democratic leaders and voters who will ultimately decide their fate. Tom Kean Jr. is a formidable incumbent, but he’s still in serious danger of losing; Democrats just need to decide on the best person to take him down.
This story was updated at 12:47 p.m. on September 13 with a correction: Blazakis is not Jewish.