Labor Day is the traditional start of the fall campaign, or at least it had been in the past. But voting begins earlier and earlier – vote-by-mail ballots begin going out on September 23 – and there really hasn’t been much of a gap between the primary and now. Still, as campaign season truly here are 9 things to look out for in September and October.
Who will the next lieutenant governor be?
Gov. Phil Murphy has until September 15 to appoint a new lieutenant governor to replace Sheila Y. Oliver, who died in office on August 1 after an extended illness. The pick belongs to Murphy alone; the 2006 law establishing the office did not include legislative confirmation, so as long as Murphy finds someone who would be constitutionally eligible to succeed him as governor, he’s good to go.
By late August, Murphy’s search had zeroed in on two members of his cabinet: Secretary of State Tahesha Way and Commissioner of Transportation Diane Gutierrez-Scaccetti, perhaps in that order. The conventional wisdom (something that is clearly non-binding) is that Murphy wants a new lieutenant governor who, in no particular order, is a woman of color who lacks political ambition. He’s unlikely to deliberately change the 2025 Democratic primary playing field with someone who might want to extend their stay.
It is possible that the new Lt. Governor could become governor if Murphy were to decide not to finish his term.
Here’s something noteworthy: the deadline to replace a candidate for the legislature on the November general election ballot passed last week; that’s because a new law signed by Murphy in July moved the deadline from the second week in September to the last week in August. That’s not a fatal problem: if Murphy were to pick a sitting legislator seeking re-election as his Lt. Governor, that person would just have to remain on the ballot and then decline to serve in January, triggering a special election convention early in the year and a November 2024 special election. None of the legislators under consideration for Oliver’s job come from districts that are even slightly competitive.
What happens if Murphy misses the deadline? New Jersey would have no Lt. Governor for the balance of Murphy’s term and Senate President Nicholas Scutari would continue to be next in the line of succession – unless the governor can find a judge to make the deadline fungible.
Will legislative Democrats sort out their messaging?
As November approaches, legislative Democrats will have to focus on creating a winning message that energizes their base while also appealing to independent voters.
Republicans have recently been hitting Democrats on a range of issues, especially offshore wind and LGBTQ topics in schools. Instead of having a clear response, many Democrats have tried distancing themselves from these issues, but seemingly with little success; recent polling shows that on parental rights in particular, Republicans have the upper hand.
Entering the post-Labor Day campaign rush, Democrats are figuring out how to manage some of these political vulnerabilities, while trying to keep attention on what they view as successful legislative accomplishments – mainly, the passage of Stay NJ.
It remains to be seen if Democrats can present a coherent message on energy and social issues while also emphasizing their work on affordability. Thanks to much higher fundraising limits courtesy of the Elections Transparency Act, they likely won’t lack for funds to promote whatever message it is they settle on.
Can Republicans raise the money they’ll need to be competitive?
For the last twenty years, New Jersey Republicans have argued that they could win majorities in the Senate and Assembly if they had a fair, competitive map. The deal map approved last year gave them a path to potentially flip enough seats to win control of the legislature.
The GOP has history on their side: the party of a second-term governor typically (but not always) loses seats in their mid-term election. And some of the issues might be tilting in their direction. But campaigns cost money, and Democrats have a significant fundraising advantage. There’s no sign that the GOP is narrowing the gap.
To be fair, Vince Polistina and Jean Stanfield were significantly outspent by South Jersey Democrats and still won two years ago. This cycle, Republicans have new minority leaders: Anthony Bucco in the Senate and John DiMaio in the Assembly.
The problem is, in order to attain a majority or bring the legislature to a tie, Republicans would need to run the table in potentially competitive districts. That’s tough to accomplish regardless, but it’s especially difficult when Democrats can outspend them in nearly every swing district.
Decades ago, in the days when Webster Todd was state GOP chairman, there was a group of big-money guys who simply wrote huge checks. It may be up to Republican State Chairman Bob Hugin, who spent $36 million of his own money running for the U.S. Senate five years ago, to find a similar group of donors to step up.
What will happen to Bob Menendez?
Practically every month so far this year, a new report has come out from various news outlets detailing the ongoing federal investigation into U.S. Senator Bob Menendez, including a Wall Street Journal story late last month reporting that the Justice Department is considering bringing charges against the three-term senator.
Menendez has resolutely denied any wrongdoing and still plans on running for re-election next year; so far, that’s been enough to scare away any big names from even testing the waters of a campaign against him. The only Democrat currently running against Menendez is newcomer Kyle Jasey, a real estate lender from a political family.
But there are nevertheless murmurs questioning if Democrats will really stick by Menendez, especially if the federal investigation ramps up further. The next few months may provide some clarity on whether Menendez breezes through to another term, faces a serious challenge from a fellow Democrat, or abandons his re-election plans entirely.
Republicans, meanwhile, aren’t waiting for the Democrats to sort themselves out before floating campaigns of their own. Two well-connected Republicans, former State Treasurer Andrew Sidamon-Eristoff and Mendham Borough Mayor Christine Serrano Glassner, are both considering Senate bids, though either would be clear general election underdogs against any Democrat.
How will the Democratic primary in the 7th congressional district shape up?
With the entrance of former State Department official Jason Blazakis in August, the Democratic field in New Jersey’s 7th congressional district – the state’s only highly competitive district – has now grown to three. Also running are former Working Families Party state director Sue Altman and Roselle Park Mayor Joe Signorello.
There may still be more Democrats on the way, but at least for the moment, the field is set. Over the next few months, it will be up to Signorello, Blazakis, and Altman, the latter two of whom have never run for public office before, to prove that they have what it takes to take on freshman Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield).
The two earliest indications of who might be breaking away from the pack are money and endorsements. Altman, who’s been in the race the longest, has an early lead on both counts, raising $200,000 in her first month in the race and getting the backing of top labor leaders at the Communication Workers of America and 32BJ SEIU.
Blazakis and Signorello, both of whom entered the race during this fundraising quarter, will have the opportunity to show their own fundraising prowess (or lack thereof) after the 3rd quarter ends on September 30. If any of the three Democrats posts a huge fundraising total, that could go a long way towards proving their viability; Blazakis in particular will want a big haul to make up for his sparse New Jersey political connections.
As for major endorsements from the district’s six county Democratic parties, or perhaps from former 7th district Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-Ringoes), don’t expect much movement particularly soon; for now, the attitude among most party leaders is to wait and see how things shake out. If one candidate does start drawing those types of endorsements this fall, they’re probably in the driver’s seat to win the nomination.
Can the GOP find solid recruits in any Democratic-held congressional districts?
Most of New Jersey’s political focus next year will likely be on Menendez’s Senate seat and the 7th district campaign, but the state is still going to host 11 other House races, and this fall is when parties have to get serious about recruiting candidates.
In Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-Dennis)’s 2nd district, Democrats have an enticing candidate in Joe Salerno, a tech entrepreneur who’s already thrown down $400,000 of his own money – nearly as much as last year’s nominee Tim Alexander raised during his entire campaign. Alexander is also running again this year, as are two other Democrats.
Republicans, on the other hand, have yet to find serious challengers in the 3rd, 5th, and 11th districts, all formerly competitive districts that were redrawn to be more Democratic. The 5th and 11th districts currently have no Republicans running at all, while the 3rd district has only Greg Sobocinski, who ran as a conservative independent in 2022 and got 0.4% of the vote.
And in the 9th district, where Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) faced his closest race in two decades last year, the exit of Vince Micco leaves threepeat challenger Billy Prempeh as the only Republican running.
The chances that any New Jersey district besides the 7th hosts a highly competitive race next year are low, so it’s not the end of the world if the parties don’t find top-tier candidates in every seat. But they’ll still obviously want to run their best possible options – options they should start finding sooner rather than later.
Will the Senate return to confirm more judges?
New Jersey has a massive number of judicial vacancies that have led to a suspension of civil and matrimonial trials in some parts of the state. Chief Justice Stuart Rabner has called it an emergency.
Right now, there are 58 vacant judgeships out of 463 seats, with an additional six vacancies anticipated between now and October 31. That number doesn’t include Jill Mayer, who was confirmed nearly 20 months ago but has piggishly refused to be sworn in as she looks for a way to take her $127,000 annual government pension while also making $175,000 as a judge.
Two other Superior Court judges are facing disciplinary charges and have uncertain futures: Gary Wilcox, who made profane, racist, and sexually graphic TikTok videos; and Mary Thurber, who is accused of remaining as the administrator of an estate even after becoming a judge.
In June, Senate President Nicholas Scutari indicated that the Senate might return in the summer to confirm more judges, but that never happened. Now the question is whether the Senate will come back into session before Election Day.
How will the presidential election affect New Jersey?
The 2024 presidential campaign is underway, and it’s unclear how it will affect a likely low-turnout election for 120 seats in the New Jersey Legislature.
Joe Biden carried New Jersey by 16 points in 2020, but his job approval ratings have now hit an all-time low: he’s upside-down at 41%-52%, and even worse in Central Jersey (40%-52%) and South Jersey (35%-60%), home to most of the state’s competitive legislative races. It’s unlikely that Democrats want Biden or Kamala Harris to campaign for them in New Jersey this year.
Donald Trump, never a favorite among New Jersey voters, faces four indictments and continues to take suck the oxygen out of the room.
Chris Christie is also running and may be taking some of the money New Jersey Republicans need to run legislative races this year. While Christie might be gaining some Democratic fans nationally (and in the media) for trying to take down Donald Trump, it’s unlikely that his home state will change their minds about him.
Will anything else go off the rails?
August was supposed to be a nice, peaceful month in New Jersey politics, with everyone getting to enjoy a brief calm before the storm of this November’s elections.
Then Lieutenant Gov. Sheila Oliver died and former Gov. Richard Codey announced his retirement after a record-smashing 50 years in the legislature. Suddenly, the who’s who of New Jersey politics had to come back from their vacations to mourn one lieutenant governor, select a new one to replace her, and figure out what the hell would happen in the 27th legislative district.
The point is, all sorts of things could happen this fall to upend the most carefully laid plans. We may think we have an idea of how this year’s legislative elections are going, or what will happen in the 2024 Senate race – but everything could change in an instant.