New Jerseyans aren’t always civil, but it’s still possible for a liberal Democrat and a conservative Republican to have a rational and pleasant conversation about politics in the state. Dan Bryan is a former senior advisor to Gov. Phil Murphy and is now the owner of his own public affairs firm, and Alex Wilkes is an attorney and former executive director of America Rising PAC who advises Republican candidates in New Jersey and across the nation, including the New Jersey GOP. Dan and Alex are both experienced strategists who are currently in the room where high-level decisions are made. They will get together weekly with New Jersey Globe editor David Wildstein to discuss politics and issues.
The first and only debate between Sue Altman and Tom Kean, Jr. in the 7th district took place last Sunday, and it had some interesting moments. Dan will say Altman won, and Alex will insist it was Kean, but I’d like to hear you explain why.
Dan Bryan: Sue Altman was smart, quick on her feet, engaging, and aggressive. She took it to Congressman Kean throughout the debate, unafraid to throw a punch on behalf of the district. Altman turned heads with her performance, surprising those who hadn’t been paying close enough attention to this race (those of us that have weren’t surprised in the least).
Meanwhile, Congressman Kean produced one of the more awkward moments in recent political memory. When asked a direct question by Altman on reproductive rights, he not only refused to answer, he refused to move a muscle or, it seems, breathe. It reminded me of the velociraptor scenes from the original Jurassic Park – maybe if I stand very still, they won’t be able to see me!
It was a bizarre reaction that will further color Congressman Kean as a lightweight, do-nothing Congressman afraid of his own shadow. I don’t think this performance is what he and his team wanted after a slew of polls showing this race tightening to a dead heat.
The debate clarified what this campaign is about – NJ7 can either have an authentic, bold representative unafraid to stand up to either party for what is right, or they can have an empty suit propped up by big money from Elon Musk and CLF. The choice is becoming clearer by the day.
Alex Wilkes: I think what Donald Trump – love him or hate him – showed us is that people like when candidates present themselves authentically. When he landed in Iowa in 2015, he didn’t put on a campaign costume of a flannel shirt and jeans; he wore his custom Brioni suit and landed in a 747 emblazoned with his name on it in gold. Pundits jeered while the crowds cheered.
I say this because in observing the debate, I think that if the genteel, mild-mannered Tom Kean showed up trying to shout down or “own the libs,” it would have been pretty cringeworthy. Instead, he was himself, which is what voters want: a civil, moderate voice who defends his positions with nuance and candor. A good example was when he pointed out after a Sue Altman rant that his position on marriage equality had changed quite some time ago while working his way through the rest of the question. It was honest and probably right in line with where most of his district (and really, the country) was and is now.
I don’t know Sue Altman other than the terrible things she has said about law enforcement and her activist background. I will also admit that formulating a debate presentation as a woman is tougher, but it’s also very doable (e.g. Mikie Sherrill). If anything I’m about to say gets my woman card revoked, I’ll sacrifice it in the name of honesty.
Altman definitely brought energy, but it was way over the top. Her reactions were extremely theatrical with the hand on the chin and the eye rolling. She definitely had quippy little lines prepared, but they also sounded like they came from someone who is terminally online. She had a TikTok, influencer style to her presentation that I found to be pretty grating.
BUT – and this is a big one – I don’t think her audience was voters in the 7th district. I think her answers were probably carefully framed and aimed at the terminally online, TikTok scrolling political and communications staff at the major Democratic funding sources in D.C. (If so, they probably would’ve done better with Tom Kean’s campaign office backdrop with some better lighting, but I digress).
Did they like it? Time will tell. In the meantime, I think that Tom Kean brought a much steadier and more serious presentation to voters listening for issues that impact their day-to-day life.
Congratulations to the Globe and everyone else on a fantastic, substantive debate season!
A Monmouth University poll shows a statistical dead heat between Kean and Altman but national Democrats haven’t spent a dime to flip this seat. Why is that?
Alex: Democrats have a lot of races to defend and try to flip if they want the majority. The 7th district is a tough media market and in a high cost of living state, making advertising and ground games almost prohibitively expensive at this stage in the game. The national organizations, who are looking to hit a magic number overall, can get more bang for their buck in cheaper districts. Sue Altman’s background also makes it a tough pill for them to swallow. She feels like the kind of candidate they might consider investing in during an anti-establishment midterm cycle, but right now, Democrats are the establishment and with all their other baggage, I think they are loath to want to add “defunding the police” to that brand.
Dan: It’s a great question! This is turning into one of the premier House races in the country – a progressive woman running a fantastic campaign against a weak incumbent Republican on the ropes. I can’t for a minute imagine who within the DCCC doesn’t think it’s a good idea to invest here.
Ultimately, I think the investments will come. These last two weeks have been too good for Altman for them to ignore. I believe they’ll move money to this race and give Altman the tools necessary to communicate her message in the final weeks. Anything less would be an abdication of duty.
Kean had a new TV ad featuring the mother of a teenage girl from Westfield who became a victim of deep-fake explicit AI-generated images shared by other students at school taking about how Kean helped her and sponsored bipartisan legislation to make what happened a crime. What did you think of the ad — and will it work?
Dan: I’ll take my political hack hat off here for a moment – I think this is a great issue for any elected official to engage with. As a father of two young daughters, I am terrified about what the future holds when they’re old enough to engage with phones and social media.
Speaking to young families about concerns that are nonpartisan is smart, and something Congressman Kean should have been doing a whole lot more of over these last two years.
Alex: I agree with Dan: it’s a great issue to showcase during a time in which voters are looking for bipartisanship in Washington. AI is exciting, but also unnerving to the public (especially with Kamala Harris at the head of the White House task force – big yikes), and parents are terrified of the risks our kids face online. The campaign was able to put a human face not just to this problem, but also to the Congressman as a father and a leader who listens to his constituents.
Altman’s new TV ad last week featured a Mountainside woman who accused Kean of having a “dangerous anti-abortion view” and accusing him of being an extremist and saying he doesn’t support invitro fertilization. Same question: What did you think of the ad — and will it work?
Alex: I am anxiously awaiting the results of a single-issue campaign focused on IVF when people are struggling to put food on the table thanks to Kamala Harris’ deciding vote to balloon the economy with inflationary spending.
In the wake of the Dobbs decision, Republicans were definitely caught flat-footed, so I don’t want to be glib about it, but the party has also had two years to sharpen its rhetoric and positions. Donald Trump has repeatedly stated that he would not sign a national abortion ban. Doing so would actually upend the very originalist jurisprudence on which Dobbs was decided. It’s a state issue, and what we see now is democracy in action with state legislatures and referendums being used to decide the particulars of the issue in a way that’s closest to the people.
New Jersey currently legalizes abortion up and until birth with absolutely no protections for the unborn child. It’s a lame, cookie cutter ad and script meant to scare and intimidate voters in a state where its assertions are a political absurdity. I’m ready for a lot of things to be over this cycle, and Sue Altman (D-IVF) is definitely at the top of the list.
Dan: Let’s make two things clear: the policies of the Republican Party are extreme and anti-choice, and Congressman Kean has not shown any strength to stand up to his party in any meaningful way. So regardless of the lip service he gives his district, calling him an extremist on reproductive rights is more than fair.
We know that reproductive rights is an animating issue for Democrats and independents. So after Altman introduced and credentialed herself in this campaign, moving on to reproductive rights is a smart strategy. We know the Dobbs decision has been an electoral disaster for Republicans for the last two cycles – we’ll see if that holds true for this November.
Every time the Mets won the National League Pennant in a federal election year, Republicans won the 7th district congressional seat — and to make Alex feel better, every time the Phillies were in the World Series, Republicans won NJ-7 too. And the one time the Mets made it to the World Series in a presidential year, Democrats carried New Jersey, and Republicans won the White House. So, since so many people in politics are superstitious, what does that mean to the Kean vs. Altman race?
Dan: It means Carlos Mendoza should have benched JD Martinez for Jesse Winker far earlier in the series.
Alex: Some things supersede politics, like baseball. I was raised old school: you support your league, even after a bitter loss, so I am rooting for the Mets on that basis only.