New Jerseyans aren’t always civil, but it’s still possible for a liberal Democrat and a conservative Republican to have a rational and pleasant conversation about politics in the state. Dan Bryan is a former senior advisor to Gov. Phil Murphy and is now the owner of his own public affairs firm, and Alex Wilkes is an attorney and former executive director of America Rising PAC who advises Republican candidates in New Jersey and across the nation, including the New Jersey GOP. Dan and Alex are both experienced strategists who are currently in the room where high-level decisions are made. They will get together weekly with New Jersey Globe editor David Wildstein to discuss politics and issues.
We’re in the final stretch of the special election for Congress in New Jersey’s 11th district between Democrat Analilia Mejia and Republican Joe Hathaway. What’s your take on the outcome in the April 16 election?
Dan Bryan: The election outcome isn’t in much doubt: Anailia Mejia will likely be the next Congresswoman from CD11. Early voting numbers have her up more than three to one, well above where she needs to be at this point. And given the chaos and destruction coming out of Washington, CD11 will be more than ready to repudiate the Trump Administration, no matter what Joe Hathaway says or does.
But unfortunately for Analilia, she still has a wild ride ahead of her in 2026. She will have to run four elections in 2026: two primaries, two generals. Two down, and two to go.
Alex Wilkes: Joe Hathaway is undoubtedly running a very strong campaign. It’s not every day you can successfully shame a Democrat into debating in New Jersey (although Analilia’s accusing the League of Women Voters of not being diverse enough may have just pushed everyone here over the edge).
There’s no sugar-coating it; it’s a tough national environment, in a tough state, in a tough district. Politics is always surprising, though, and I would say with Hathaway’s strong offensive campaign paired with potentially knives out on the Democratic side could create some fireworks. Any Democrat who’s telling you they want Analilia to be the next permanent AOC of NJ-12 is a liar, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the machine strategically took its foot off the gas for this one. Probably not, but this is New Jersey – not a permanent No Kings rally – so it wouldn’t shock me.
Now that we’re past filing day, and down to just 13 candidates in the Democratic primary, how do you handicap the race for Bonnie Watson Coleman’s congressional seat in the 12th district?
Alex: It’s so embarrassing to watch the thirst and desperation from Democrats every time a congressional seat opens up. It’s like the reverse of the New Yorkers submitting sonograms to preschools to ensure their kid has a spot in four years; these political losers all want a secured, generational place at the nursing home — Congress, I mean. The cherry on top is that this gridlock is precisely the result of the gerrymandering scheme one of the Democratic candidates – Sam Wang, a supposedly nonpartisan advisor to the committee – put into place. No county line and double-digit candidate primaries for Democrats from here on out — couldn’t have happened to nicer people!
Dan: I know it may be foreign for my friend Alex to see excitement in her party about running for office, but that comes with being able to run against Trump and his corrupt, disastrous administration in Washington!
No doubt, there are many good candidates in this race. And that makes sense – winning this primary sets the Democratic nominee up with a safe seat in Congress that they can hold for as long as they want.
You can’t disregard any of the candidates that won county backing: Cohen, Reynolds-Jackson, Mapp, and Robinson will all enter election day with a geographic coalition behind them.
But Sue Altman, who ran a phenomenal race in 2024 and took this primary by storm after a late entrance, and Hamaway, who has coalesced the far-left, are likely the two front runners.
In a 13 candidate field, as little as 20% could easily win the nomination. Anything can happen.
Move over to the 7th district Democratic primary to pick a candidate to take on Republican incumbent Tom Kean, Jr. Do you see a front-runner in that race?
Dan: I’m not exactly objective here – I’ve spent the last 14 months helping Rebecca Bennett build a campaign capable of taking on Tom Kean, Jr and flipping CD7. In fairness to the other candidates, all I’ll say about Rebecca is this: she is the real deal.
And let’s be clear: Tom Kean, Jr. is uniquely vulnerable in this election. He is *not* a man made for these times – totally incapable of standing up to Donald Trump, he has become the embodiment of our NPC Congress, deferring any and all autonomy to the White House.
This November, the residents of CD7 will send a clear message: they want someone in Washington capable of standing up for them. Tom Kean, Jr. is clearly not.
Alex: I’ll be a sport and go with Dan’s gal because I heard she actually used to think a lot like I do!
Looking ahead to November, Tom Kean and his team have built exactly the type of campaign that’s meant to withstand the winds of a Category 5 bad cycle. You have a candidate buckled down on the basics like money and ground, both of which will matter when they end up facing a national party with resources that are spread too thin for their coffers and a message that is still too extreme for seventh district voters when it comes right down to it.
Let’s finish up with the Republican primary for U.S. Senate for a shot to challenge the incumbent, Cory Booker. How do you see this race shaping up? And do you care?
Alex: Going to be so for real with you right now and admit that I have bigger problems than the race to replace Cory Booker. That’s just how some cycles go.
Dan: Republicans can run the living embodiment of Abraham Lincoln (warning to Republicans: Lincoln was *extremely* woke) and Cory Booker would win by double digits. This is not a competitive election, and the New Jersey GOP will likely not put forward a serious candidate.
If I were someone with a rooting interest in the NJ GOP, I’d want to see some life out of the party this November. No one expects them to win, or to come close. But show us some effort!
I am interested to see how Senator Booker uses reelection to drive his national profile. He may use this campaign as an opportunity to test-run messaging and speech frames that could find their way to a state fair in Iowa, or a fish fry in South Carolina.