New Jerseyans aren’t always civil, but it’s still possible for a liberal Democrat and a conservative Republican to have a rational and pleasant conversation about politics in the state. Dan Bryan is a former senior advisor to Gov. Phil Murphy and is now the owner of his own public affairs firm, and Alex Wilkes is an attorney and former executive director of America Rising PAC who advises Republican candidates in New Jersey and across the nation. Dan and Alex are both experienced strategists who are currently in the room where high-level decisions are made. They will get together weekly with New Jersey Globe editor David Wildstein to discuss politics and issues.
New Jersey Globe: The new charges against Senator Menendez that he acted as an unregistered agent of the Egyptian government are stunning. The news keeps getting worse, and life for him is going to be hell — he’s trailed by reporters as he moves through the Capitol, and some of his closest allies have told him to resign. If you were his staffer, what would you be doing — and what would you be telling him?
Dan Bryan: I’m not sure what you can possibly tell someone in his situation. On top of the charges that dropped a few weeks ago, he is now being charged with acting as a foreign agent…while Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee. If you wrote it into a movie, people would say it wasn’t believable. I hope he heeds the many, many calls to resign sooner rather than later.
On another note, it’s very easy for me to say “if I were his staffer, I’d resign,” but it’s not always that easy. If you’re relying on your job to pay your rent, your mortgage, your childcare, and your health insurance, you may not have the luxury to resign at the drop of a hat. I’m sure that every one of them is looking around, but I would caution anyone to think twice before attacking his staff.
Alex Wilkes: He ought to resign for the good of the Republic, particularly as Egypt emerges as an important figure in the ongoing and merciless attack Israel is currently facing from Iranian-backed Hamas terrorists. Truthfully, if I were in these staffers’ shoes I would consider resigning myself to avoid the legal and reputational fallout.
From a legal perspective, it’s possible he’s being advised to hang onto the seat as leverage in a future plea deal. It also gives him a considerably better platform from which to raise money for a legal defense fund. A sitting Senator can always find a check or two, but a defrocked one has a tougher sell to make.
BUT, it all leads back to the question: just how much of Bob Menendez’s personal problems should we be expected to tolerate and fund?
NJ Globe: One of the cornerstones of our legal system is the presumption of innocence, and frankly, I don’t recall ever meeting an elected official who disagrees with that. So why are serious people talking about expelling Bob Menendez from the United States Senate without a trial? Is this just politics, or is expulsion a fair response from his colleagues?
Alex: Bob Menendez is 100% entitled to due process in a court of law. I might think he’s a dirtbag, but I would fight like hell for him or anyone else to ensure they have the same protections the accused all deserve under our system of laws.
I also believe in due process protections in the workplace, particularly when that job involves being a duly-elected representative of the people. We should never take overturning the will of the people lightly, regardless of the circumstances.
In this case, however, I think a serious person could reasonably find that Menendez’ ability to further compromise the national security of our country outweighs whatever courtesy we might otherwise extend to him as he awaits trial. There’s a land war in Europe involving some of our greatest geopolitical foes, a terrifying conflict in the Middle East with extremists who want to exterminate Israel and the United States…and Bob Menendez just told the world that he’ll do your bidding and share our secrets for a gold bar and a trip to Mercedes-Benz of Edison. Time to go.
Dan: I am doubtful the Senate will move to expel. I think Republicans are happy to have Senator Menendez serve in the Senate, and use him as a punching bag going into next year’s election. They’ve also gone too far down the road with President Trump, insisting that his many indictments are just political retribution. It would be too hypocritical, even for them, to then turn around and expel a Senator based on indictments rather than convictions.
NJ Globe: Congressman Gottheimer is taking on crisis pregnancy centers, calling them deceptive, healthcare hoax clinics that brainwash women to prevent them from having abortions. For a centrist Democrat eyeing a run for governor, is this good or bad politics?
Dan: Congressman Gottheimer is finding an issue that speaks to a core constituency of the Democratic party. I’m sure he is aware of his branding as a centrist Democrat, and he’s doing what he can to show progressive Democrats that he can stand up for core Democratic issues.
The right to choose has become a dominant theme in our politics today, but not just because of the issue of eliminating access to abortion. The Dobbs decision stands as living, breathing proof that the Republican party is extreme, and capable of plotting for decades and lying to our faces in order to take rights away from us. Especially here in New Jersey, the Republican party is not trusted to care about the issues the average New Jerseyan cares about.
Alex: So look, maybe in less than a month I’ll be sitting here saying that Dan’s friends’ singular, specious, and almost religious devotion to abortion at the expense of discussing every single other issue on the minds of New Jerseyans was a brilliant and flawless play. I would normally say that that smacks of desperation and absurdity, but I don’t have the luxury of having tons of dark money and a big (albeit shrinking) voter registration advantage on my side. It could work, which might then suggest that Josh Gottheimer casually savaging a religious charity on a Friday in pursuit of higher office would be an A+ strategy.
But let’s talk for a second about the complete averageness of Josh Gottheimer. I’m sure his Ivy League pedigree and series of D.C. revolving door jobs make his parents proud, but face it: it doesn’t exactly make him special in Washington. He’s better known for his prolific day trading than he is as a true dealmaker.
His Problem Solvers’ Caucus has gone to shit after they enabled a few whack jobs to hold Congress hostage during an international crisis (when they hold themselves out to be, you know, problem solvers). His association with No Labels is under scrutiny given their interest in backing a third party candidate in 2024. Most importantly, his considerably more personally and politically compelling rivals, Mikie Sherrill and Steve Fulop, are making serious moves ahead of 2025.
So, if going after people of faith is his first big pivot, excuse my very poorly disguised contempt.
By the way, Josh, the “cultish, brainwashing center” you stood in front of last Friday is a ministry run by a lovely woman by the name of Debbie Provencher, who has helped countless families in their time of need. I’d trust her advice any day over a politician who can’t even define what a woman is.
NJ Globe: As we get closer to Election Day, political insiders are asking about the chances of Republican control of the legislature with greater frequency. Alex, Republicans need to pick up six Senate seats and seven Assembly seats to win majorities — what races get you there? And Dan: why won’t that happen? Or do you think it might?
Alex: There seems to be a completely absurd idea coming from some media here that Republicans are “giddy” about our prospects. It’s being pushed with such fervor that it almost makes you believe that they’re looking to help their Democratic buddies rev up their turnout. No one I know is giddy or overconfident. We are working diligently and carefully to put a check on the Democrats’ runaway power and spending in Trenton.
We are cautiously optimistic about our chances of putting a real dent in Democrats’ margins in both chambers. We are optimistic about a new map, an organic issue set (affordability, parents’ rights, immigration, etc.) that works in our favor, and efforts we are painstakingly making to close the VBM gap from previous years. We are cautious with respect to the built in advantages that benefit Democrats, like voter registration and limited media coverage. That’s all I can really say for now.
Dan: Let’s be very clear: Democrats can lose this election. This will be a low turnout election with a very low awareness among the general public. I don’t know any Democrat that thinks this November will be easy, especially after the close calls in 2021. If Democrats throughout our state, and the people that care about seeing Democrats reelected to Trenton, don’t wake up and see the precarious position we’re in, we absolutely could be in for a rough election cycle.
But now here’s the good news: not only are Democrats running good, strong races throughout the state, Republican campaigns have been horrendous. Their fundraising has lagged, their candidate recruitment has been disastrous, their messaging has been jumbled and unfocused, and their agenda is unpopular.
It doesn’t mean they can’t win, but New Jersey Republicans certainly haven’t done anything to earn a W. I’m cautiously optimistic that New Jersey will again reject the failed politics of the Republican party in our state.