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Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. (Photo: NJ Globe file photo).

Late entry hurts Bloomberg, Murray says

Billionaire set to enter crowded Democratic primary field

By Nikita Biryukov, November 08 2019 11:45 am

There might not be much room in the Democratic presidential primary for billionaire Michael Bloomberg, Monmouth University poll director Patrick Murray said.

“The vast majority of Democratic voters are satisfied with the field of candidates they already have to pick from.  It is true that 1-in-5 moderates would like to see someone else in the running, which is twice the number of liberals who feel that way,” he said. “However, it is not clear the Bloomberg is the candidate who will win them over.  He was getting less than 5% in the primary question and had a divided favorability rating when we included him in our polling at the beginning of the year.”

The billionaire is set to filed paperwork early this week, though it’s not yet clear whether he’ll follow through on that decision.

Should he choose to run, he’ll enter a narrowing Democratic field, where cash constraints have forced more than one candidate to drop their presidential bid.

The late entry won’t make for an easy candidacy.

“It is extremely difficult for someone to get in now if they don’t have significant star power among Democratic voters. Short of Michelle Obama, I can’t think of any late entrant who could make a dent other than to hurt one of the existing front runners,” Murray said. “Bloomberg could end up hurting Biden but actually helping Sanders or Warren nab the nomination.”

Still, the candidate has functionally-limitless funds — estimates peg his personal wealth at around $53 billion — but that money will likely be used playing catch-up.

Even then, it might not be enough.

“Bloomberg would have to go on a major spending streak in the early states, a la Tom Steyer, and hope that there are enough polls between now and early December for him to qualify for that debate,” Murray said. “That will give him a national stage, but he will not be able to catch up organizationally in the early states. And early state wins drive the national narrative.”

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One thought on “Late entry hurts Bloomberg, Murray says

  1. Why is anyone taking the Bloomberg candidacy seriously? The guy was a Republican who became and Independent and has more in common with Rudy Giuliani then any Democrat in the field! He is a right of center candidacy who is hated the NEA and will never rise above 2% in the polls. Him, Tom Steyer and other non-entities have nothing in common with mainstream party regulars. Bloomberg is a Democrat in party registration only. Stop talking about a guy who’s candidacy is nowhere!

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