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Maps: Party registration in key legislative districts

By Ben Kestenbaum, July 12 2019 3:19 pm

In the most competitive legislative districts, Democrats hold a registration advantage over Republicans, but the largest voting group in New Jersey as of June Primaries remains unaffiliated voters.

Nearly four out of ten registered voters in New Jersey (39.8%) are unaffiliated with any major political party, while Democrats maintain a 15.91% registration leave over the GOP.

New Jersey has a total of 6,008,005 registered voters, with 98.98% of them being registered as a Democrat or a Republican or being unaffiliated with either party.

A total of 2,393,335 voters are unaffiliated in New Jersey, the largest group in the state. 2,254,633 voters are registered as Democrats, compromising 37.53% of the state’s voters.

The smallest major group of registered voters in New Jersey, is the Republican Party, which accounts for 1,298,884 voters, or 21.62% of the state’s registered voters.

Twenty of the states 40 legislative districts have a plurality of unaffiliated voters, with the district with the largest share of unaffiliated voters, being District 12, where 44.85% of registered voters are Unaffiliated.

Democrats have a plurality of registered voters in 19 of the states 40 legislative districts and have a majority of registered voters in 7 of the states 40 legislative districts, with their best district being District 20, where 55.29% of the districts registered voters are registered Democrats. Their strongest districts are located in Hudson, Essex, Mercer, and Camden counties.

Republicans only have a plurality of registered voters in one district, out of the states 40, with 40.15% of District 24’s registered voters, being registered Republicans. Their strongest districts are located in Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, Morris, and Ocean Counties.

Here’s how New Jersey’s most competitive legislative districts

1st District: There is a plurality of unaffiliated voters, who account for 40.44% of registered voters in the district, followed by Republicans at 30.23%, and Democrats at 28.08%. After unaffiliated voters, Republicans hold a 2.15% lead among registered voters over Democrats. Since 2011, Democrats have closed the gap between them, and the GOP in terms of overall vote share, by 1.9%, and by 0.42% since 2017. The share of unaffiliated voters in the district has declined by 6.65%, and by 2.07% since 2017.

2nd District: There is a plurality of unaffiliated voters who account for 39.03% of registered voters in the district, followed by Democrats at 35.07%, and Republicans at 24.72% of registered voters. After unaffiliated voters, Democrats hold a 10.35% lead among registered voters over Republicans. Since 2011, Democrats have increased their edge over Republicans in voter registration by 2.68%, and by 0.49% since 2011.The share of unaffiliated voters in the district has declined by 4.43% since 2011, and by 1.16% from 2017.

8th District: There is a plurality of unaffiliated voters who account for 39.59% of registered voters in the district, followed by Democrats at 31.91%, and Republicans at 27.63%. After unaffiliated voters, Democrats have a 4.28% lead among registered voters over Republicans. Since 2011, Democrats increased their edge over Republicans by 1.44%, and by 0.22% since 2017. The share of unaffiliated voters in the district has declined by 5.59% since 2011, and by 1.23% from 2017.

11th District, there is a plurality of unaffiliated voters who account for 43.01% of registered voters in the district, followed by Democrats at 32.64%, and Republicans at 23.15% After unaffiliated voters, Democrats have a 9.49% lead among registered voters over Republicans. Since 2011, Democrats have increased their edge over Republicans by 1.23%, and by 0.24% since 2017. The share of unaffiliated voters in the district has declined by 9.58% since 2011 and buy 2.11% since 2017.

16th District, there is a plurality of unaffiliated voters who account for 41.14% of registered voters in the district, followed by Democrats at 33.61% of registered voters, and Republicans at 24.5% of registered voters. After unaffiliated voters, Democrats hold a 9.11% lead among registered voters over the Republicans. Since 2011, Democrats have increased their share of registered voters in this district by 5.96%, and by 1.7% since 2011. The share of unaffiliated voters in the district has declined by 6.74% since 2011, and by 0.72% since 2017.

21st District, there is a plurality of unaffiliated voters who account for 40.65% of registered voters in the district, followed by Democrats at 30.7%, and Republicans at 28.06%. After unaffiliated voters, Democrats hold a 2.64% lead among registered voters over the Republicans. Since 2011, Democrats have increased their share of registered voters in this district by 5.53% and by 1.6% since 2017. The share of unaffiliated voters in the district has declined by 4.5% since 2011, and by 1% since 2017.

25th District, there is a plurality of unaffiliated voters who account for 36.75% of registered voters in the district, followed by Republicans at 33.82% and Democrats at 28.59%. After unaffiliated voters, Republicans hold a 5.23% lead among registered voters over the Democrats. Since 2011, Democrats have increased their share of registered voters by 5.96%, and by 1.85 since 2017. The share of unaffiliated voters in the district has declined by 4.49% since 2011, and by 1.25% since 2017.

39th District, there is a plurality of unaffiliated voters who account for 43.22% of registered voters in the district, followed by Republicans at 28.88% and Democrats at 27.27%. After unaffiliated voters, Republicans hold a 1.61% lead among registered voters over the Democrats. Since 2011, Democrats have increased their share of registered voters by 3.3%, and by .8% since 2017. The share of unaffiliated voters in the district has declined by 5.31% since 2011, and by 0.83% since 2017.

Over the past two decades, Democrats have drastically increased their share of registered voters in New Jersey, coming close to passing unaffiliated voters, and having a plurality of Registered voters in the state. Republicans have fallen behind in terms of registered voters, have to win over an increasingly large number of unaffiliated voters in order to remain competitive, while their leads in voter registration narrows in numerous of their Assembly districts. Unaffiliated voters have increasingly registered to one of the two major parties in the past decade, and their share of registered voters is down statewide.

Map by Ben Kestenbaum
Map by Ben Kestenbaum
Map by Ben Kestenbaum
Map by Ben Kestenbaum
Map by Ben Kestenbaum
Map by Ben Kestenbaum
Map by Ben Kestenbaum
Map by Ben Kestenbaum
Map by Ben Kestenbaum
Map by Ben Kestenbaum
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