As New Jerseyans await Patrick Murray’s gold standard Monmouth University poll of the 2021 gubernatorial campaign between Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy and Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli , here’s a look at the track record of the poll in the last four New Jersey gubernatorial elections:
Six days before the 2017 governor’s race, the Monmouth poll put the race between Murphy and Republican Kim Guadagno, then the lieutenant governor, at 14 points, 53%-39%. The final result was 14 points, 56%-42%.
Murphy was also 14 points up in an October 3 Monmouth poll, 51%-37%.
Four days before the 2013 general election, the Monmouth poll had Republican Gov. Chris Christie ahead of Democratic State Sen. Barbara Buono by 20 points, 57%-37%. Christie defeated Buono by 22 points, 60%-38%.
The Monmouth poll had Christie up 24 points, 59%-35%, on October 15.
In 2009, the Monmouth poll foreshadowed a close election.
The poll had Christie and Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine tied at 39% on October 20, with 14% for independent Christopher Daggett. By November 1, Monmouth had Christie up by one point, 43%-42%, with Daggett dropping to 8%. One day later – the day before the election – Monmouth released a new poll showing Corzine up by two, 43%-41% with Daggett still at 8%.
Christie beat Corzine by 3.6 points, 48.5%-44.9%, with Daggett, the endorsed candidate of the Newark Star-Ledger, scoring just 5.8% of the vote.
The first Monmouth University poll, in 2005, put Corzine 9 points ahead of Republican Douglas Forrester, 47%-38%. Corzine won that election by 10 points 53.5%-43%.
Two previous Monmouth polls put Murphy in front of Ciattarelli: by 16 points in August by 13 points in September.