POLITICO says that the New Jersey Senate race leans Democrat, and that Republicans are in danger of losing four House seats in next month’s mid-term election.
“At present, that analysis suggests the battle for the House is leaning toward Democrats, while Republicans are likely to keep control of the Senate,” wrote Steven Shepard for Politico. “There are currently 206 seats where Democrats have the advantage, compared to 205 for Republicans. But more of Democrats’ seats are safely in their column when compared to Republicans, and national trends suggest the wind is at Democrats’ back.”
According to the POLITICO analysis, Democrats will pick up he seats of retiring Republican congressmen Frank LoBiondo and Rodney Frelinghuysen, and rates challenges to a pair of GOP incumbents, Tom MacArthur and Leonard Lance, as toss-ups.
“National Republicans have abandoned (Seth) Grossman over his past, bigoted comments,” POLITICO says about the 2nd district race. Grossman, a former Atlantic County freeholder, faces Democratic State Sen. Jeff Van Drew.
In the contest for Frelinghuysen seat, POLITICO says that Democrat Mikie Sherrill, a former U.S. Navy helicopter pilot and federal prosecutor who has raised over $7 million, leads Republican Jay Webber, a five-term assemblyman.
MacArthur faces Andy Kim, a former Obama White House staffer. Lance is being challenged by former Assistant U.S. Secretary of State Tom Malinowski. Independent polls show both races to be within the margin of error.
But POLITICO rates the 4th district race, where Democrat Josh Welle has raised $1.3 million in his bid to oust 19-term Republican Rep. Christopher Smith, as Likely Republican.
Six Democratic incumbents – Donald Norcross, Frank Pallone, Albio Sires, Bill Pascrell, Donald Payne and Bonnie Watson-Coleman – are all ranked as Sold Democrat. A seventh congressman, Josh Gottheimer, is in the Likely Democrat. That means POLITCO views Smith as likely to win as Gottheimer.
In the battle for control of the U.S. Senate, POLITICO says the landscape favors the Republicans.
“Democrats essentially have to run the table of competitive races to reclaim control of the chamber, an exercise in political needle-threading that makes the GOP the current favorites to hold their majority,” Shepard said.
POLITICO puts the race between incumbent Bob Menendez and Republican Bob Hugin as Leans Democrat.
“Menendez has been dogged by last year’s corruption trial, which ended in a hung jury. Hugin has loaned his campaign $15 million, as of the end of June,” POLITICO said.