Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the nonpartisan national election forecaster operated by the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, has shifted New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District race toward Democrat Rebecca Bennett.
The Crystal Ball’s latest ratings moved the contest from Toss Up to Leans Democratic, describing Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr. as “a modest underdog” against Bennett, a Navy veteran.
They said Kean’s lengthy, unexplained absence from Congress earlier this year likely hurt his standing, or at least did not help him. Kean eventually disclosed that he had been receiving treatment for depression.
The Cook Political Report, another nonpartisan election forecaster, continues to rate the contest as a Toss Up.
Kean is seeking a second term in one of the nation’s most closely divided House districts. He first won the seat in 2022 by unseating two-term Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski. Four years earlier, Malinowski had defeated five-term Republican Rep. Leonard Lance.
The district narrowly supported Donald Trump by one percentage point in 2024, while Gov. Mikie Sherrill carried it by two points in 2025.
The Crystal Ball cited a StimSight Research poll commissioned by InsiderNJ that showed Bennett leading Kean, 47% to 42%, among likely voters. The September 8-12 survey of 498 voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points.
The poll found Bennett with a 40%-30% favorable rating, while Kean’s rating was 37% favorable and 55% unfavorable.
InsiderNJ is owned by Democratic National Committeeman John F.X. Graham and his son, Michael Graham. The two have contributed $10,500 to Bennett’s