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U.S. Senator Bob Menendez. Photo by Kevin Sanders for New Jersey Globe

Quinnipiac: Menendez has 11-point lead

Democratic Senator leads Hugin 53%-42% among likely voters

By David Wildstein, October 03 2018 1:46 pm

U.S. Senator Bob Menendez has an eleven-point lead over Republican Bob Hugin, 53%-42%, among likely voters in his bid for re-election to a third term, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released this afternoon.

Menendez’s lead is fueled by a 57%-38% lead among women voters.  Men are split at 48% each.

Among the state’s crucial block of Independent voters, Hugin has a five point lead, 48%-43%.

“Sen. Robert Menendez has the advantage of representing very blue New Jersey, where there are many more Democrats than Republicans,” said Mary Snow, polling analyst for the Quinnipiac University Poll.  “Also working to his advantage is that 63 percent of New Jersey voters want Congress to be more of a check on President Donald Trump. That number is even higher among women.”

Quinnipiac has Menendez at 93% among Democrats likely to vote in the November mid-term election, a number that sharply contrasts a Fairleigh Dickinson University poll released this morning.

Hugin is at 93% among Republican likely voters.

Menendez has upside-down favorables of 34%-58%.   He’s at 64%-25% among Democrats and upside-down at 22%-60% among Independents.

Hugin is at 35%-27%.  He’s at 77%-5% among Republicans and at 36%-20% among Independents.

Nearly six out of ten (59%) of New Jerseyans say that Menendez is not honest, but voters say Menendez cares about average people by a 48%-39% margin.  39% of voters say that Hugin is honest, while 24% say he’s not.

“New Jersey likely voters may prefer Sen. Menendez over Republican challenger Bob Hugin, but they certainly make it clear they are not fond of Menendez,” Snow said. “Only one quarter of voters believe the incumbent is honest. Hugin, a former pharmaceutical executive, scores higher on honesty, at 39 percent, but just about as many people don’t know enough about him to say for sure.”

Hugin leads among white voters by a single percentage point, 49%-48%, but Menendez holds a 41-point lead, 67%-26%, among non-whites.

Quinnipiac breaks down their results into five regions of the state.

Menendez leads in: Essex/Hudson by 44 points, 69%-25% margin; Bergen/Passaic/Union/Middlesex/Mercer by 14 points, 55%-41%; and Burlington/Camden/Cape May/Cumberland/Gloucester/Salem by 11 points, 54%-43%.  Hugin leads in Morris/Somerset/Warren/Sussex/Hunterdon by 8 points, 52%-44%, and in Atlantic/Monmouth/Ocean by 8 points, 50%-42%.

Menendez led by six points, 43%-37%, in a poll released in August.  Polls released this week by Stockton University and Fairleigh Dickinson University had the race in a statistical dead heat.  The pollster said the new poll ought not be compared to the August one, since this includes likely voters.

Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,058 New Jersey likely voters from September 25 to October 2.  The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.1%.

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