The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has released its initial list of 29 House Democratic “Frontliners,” incumbents who may be vulnerable in the 2024 congressional elections – and not one New Jersey representative was included on the list.
In 2022, Republicans were able to flip one New Jersey district, the 7th; now-Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield) beat former Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-Ringoes) in an expensive and bitterly fought race. But Republican attempts to flip three other Democratic-held seats – the 3rd, 5th, and 11th – came up well short, in part because of a new congressional map that made all three much bluer.
After each winning by double digits last year, Reps. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown), Josh Gottheimer (D-Wyckoff), and Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) are widely viewed as the heavy favorites for re-election, both by the DCCC and by outside observers. Two major election forecasters, Sabato’s Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report, rate each of their districts as safely Democratic.
House Democrats have yet to release their list of Red-to-Blue districts that they hope to flip in 2024. When they do, Kean’s 7th district is near-certain to be included, setting up another close fight for New Jersey’s premier swing district.