In just a few days, Senator Bob Menendez will resign his seat as a U.S. senator, ending a once-storied political career that was brought down by his indictment, and eventually conviction, on corruption charges. But as of now, Menendez still remains on the ballot as an independent, and the deadline for him to withdraw his candidacy is just two days away.
If Menendez does stay on the ballot, it could siphon some votes away from Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown), the Democratic nominee for Senate, though the politically damaged senator would likely struggle to attract all that many voters. It would also mean that Menendez, who hasn’t lost an election since his days in local Union City politics in the 1980s, would officially go out on a final, dismal defeat.
“It’s one more parting humiliation for him that would be looming,” said Micah Rasmussen, the director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University. “At this point, getting out is not for Andy Kim, it’s not for the Democrats – it’s for face-saving. It would be a tall order to imagine that he will get any significant number of votes, so I think staying in the race only buys him more humiliation.”
Menendez’s campaign – or whatever is left of it – did not respond to a request for comment on the senator’s plans. The official deadline to withdraw is Friday, August 16, though that could potentially be fungible if need be.
Menendez, a three-term Democrat, filed in June to run as an independent under the “Menendez for Senate” banner after declining to compete in a Democratic primary which he was sure to lose to either Kim or First Lady Tammy Murphy. At the time, Menendez said he was taking the unprecedented step of an independent campaign in order to give the constituents he’s championed for decades a chance to vote for him again.
“As I have said before; I have committed no crime,” he said. “I am more confident than ever that New Jerseyans and the rest of the American public will see me exonerated of what I am being accused of, and I will be re-elected to the Senate once again.”
That exoneration, however, very much did not occur, with a New York jury finding Menendez guilty on all charges on July 16. The senator continued to insist on his innocence and has said he plans to appeal, but after facing widespread calls for his resignation from within the Senate Democratic caucus, he announced he would depart the Senate effective August 20, saying he did “not want the Senate to be involved in a lengthy process that will detract from its important work.”
Even before his conviction, Menendez’s position in opinion polling was abysmal, with a Monmouth poll from March putting his job approval rating at 16% among New Jersey voters. In two pre-conviction polls of a three-way Senate race between Menendez, Kim, and Republican Curtis Bashaw, Menendez earned 3% and 6% of the vote; no polls have been conducted since the guilty verdict, but it’s probably safe to assume that Menendez’s support is even more diminished now.
Menendez has also used up much of his campaign cash on his legal defense, and may need to use the remainder for his appeal, leaving him with a far reduced ability to seriously campaign for re-election even if he wanted to. (His campaign money is stored in an account for the 2024 election, but it could be easily transferred to a hypothetical 2030 campaign account in order to continue paying legal bills.)
“From the very beginning of this thing, we have been saying that the only scenario in which there is any plausible independent candidacy begins with the prerequisite of a clean legal bill of health, which he does not have,” Rasmussen said. “And so his viability is really not there for him… I think voters are going to be more annoyed than anything to see him: ‘Does he really expect me to vote for him, given what’s transpired?’”
If he did stay in, it would likely be to the mild benefit of Bashaw, who stands to gain from some extremely loyal (or perhaps ill-informed) Menendez voters splitting off from Kim. Menendez’s presence might also simply reinforce the idea in many voters’ minds that New Jersey politics is a dirty business, where even senators convicted of bribery and extortion still run for re-election.
Ultimately, though, Rasmussen predicted that Menendez will end his campaign – but not without making his former Democratic allies sweat a bit first.
“I would imagine that he’ll get out at the last minute, the way he waited and waited before his resignation from the Senate,” he said. “He’s not in the mood to save anybody any comfort, any peace of mind – he wants to be as much of a thorn in the side as he possibly can.”