The New Jersey Globe takes the projection of winners on Election Day with an extraordinary level of seriousness.
Projections must be accurate unassailably accurate. Some races are easy – some hugely complicated – and we look closely had the number of votes counted and where those votes are from before calling any race.
Some are easier than others. In New Jersey’s 10th district, one of the ten most Democratic districts in the nation, the race was over when the winner of the Democratic primary was certified.
Still, we will not make a projection in any race until the polls – whatever that means this year – close at 8 PM.
In an election conducted primarily through vote-by-mail ballots, projecting races becomes much more complicated.
There are four buckets of votes that must be considered before a race is called – and most of them will take a while:
1. VOTE-BY-MAIL BALLOTS IN HAND BEFORE 8 PM
As of Monday evening, 3,618,139 ballots had been recorded as received by county election officials. That’s a statewide voter turnout of 60%. Some counties have acknowledged that they are behind in scanning ballots, which makes this number lower than the actual ballots in-hand.
County officials have been counting votes for ten days and will release numbers after 8 PM.
As needed, ballots will be collected from secure drop boxes during the day. Each drop box can handle about 2,300 ballots, and officials need to watch for over-stuffing issues. The U.S. Postal Service is expected, hopefully, to deliver ballots to the counties several times during the day.
In New Jersey, if you’ve seen one county, you’ve seen one county. Every county does things a little differently. It’s not clear if counties will release partial tallies or just one. It’s also not clear if counties will continue tabulating votes late into the evening, or stop at some point and resume on Wednesday.
These votes will be the first counted – and possibly the only ones we see on election night.
2. PROVISIONAL (PAPER BALLOTS) AND VBM BALLOTS DROPPED AT POLLING PLACES
Polling places open at 6 AM and close at 8 PM. It’s the choice of the voter to cast their vote in-person using a paper ballot, and voters can also drop off their VBM ballot at their polling place.
This part is important: paper ballots will all be tabulated, but the count will not begin until November 11. Before counting, election officials must determine that voters did not also return their mail-in ballot.
It’s also not clear which counties will release the total number of paper ballots on Tuesday. Some officials might go home before announcing the count. The state has opted not to require a disclosure of the total number of ballots.
Vote-by-mail ballots delivered to polling places on Election Day will be counted earlier, but not necessarily on Tuesday.
The total number of ballots cast on Election Day is an integral part of determining a winner.
3. LATE-ARRIVING VOTE-BY-MAIL BALLOTS DELIVERED BY THE POST OFFICE
New Jersey will accept all VBM ballots postmarked on or before November 3 that are delivered by the U.S. Postal Service by the close of business on November 10 will also be counted.
Additionally, VBM ballots delivered by the post office with no postmark will be accepted through close of business on November 5.
None of these prospective ballots, of course, will be included in the Tuesday night count.
4. DEFECTIVE BALLOTS THAT ARE CURED BY THE VOTER
When a county Board of Elections rejects a ballot due to a technical defect, such as an unmatched signature, voters will get a letter giving them on opportunity to repair the deficiency. These ballots can’t be counted until the defect is cured.
Voters have until November 18 to fix the defects of their ballot.
It’s also not clear whether Naked Ballots – ballots that leave out the inside envelope – will be counted. At least one judge has already permitted that defect to be cured, but it’s not certain that voters are receiving notification.
The deadline to certify election results is November 20.
During the primary election, several counties sought and received a judge’s order that gave them an extra week to count ballots.
There is a hard stop to count votes of 3 PM December 14. That is the date the Electoral College meets, so all elections must be certified before then.
The New Jersey Globe will project races in the following ways:
* Projected Winner is a race where one candidate, based on early numbers, is certain to have won.
* Likely Winner will be called when a victory is clear but the data available does not alone permit an absolute decision. Still, a Likely Winner ought not be declared without sufficient merit.
The New Jersey Globe reserves the option of labeling a race as leaning toward a particular candidate.
* Too Close to Call means that the total votes counted does not warrant a projection on the outcome of the race. The absence of knowing how many votes remain uncounted will likely make some races impossible to project.
The reality is that this election is different; it lacks the simplicity of a typical election night. Usually the candidate who receives the most votes wins the election, but that might not happen. Much is dependent upon how many uncounted votes exist – if we don’t know that answer, a projection becomes increasingly haphazard – and we need to know where the uncounted votes are coming from.
And don’t underestimate the massive number of legal challenges that might accompany the counting of votes.
The New Jersey Globe will not project a winner unless we are certain that it is the right call.
Enjoy Election Night. It’s the Super Bowl of American politics.